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Senin, 07 Februari 2011

HEXA:More Heavy Equipment Supply - Mandiri Sekuritas

Hexindo Adiperkasa (HEXA)’s accounting period starts from April to March in following year. Although 9M10/11 profit margin decreased from 9M09/10 due to increase in its cost of revenue, HEXA consistently showed qoq gross margin improvement to 18.5% in 3Q10 from 18.0% in 2Q10 and 17.7% in 1Q10. 9M10/11 pretax profit and net income was above our expectation due to the reversal of allowance for doubtful account of US$2,123,234 due to the first time adoption of revised Statement of Financial Accounting (SFAS) No. 50-55. The remaining allowance balance is US$133,825. The reversal of the allowance is non cash and non-taxable income (Indonesia Tax Office uses cash basis, not accrual basis). We adjusted our FY10/11F other income and maintain our Buy recommendation with DCF-derived TP of Rp9,000/share (WACC of 12.5% and Terminal Growth of 5.0%), which implies PER11/12F of 16.7x as we expect the boom in heavy equipment industry to continue.

9M10/11 upline within expectation but bottomline exceeded expectation. 9M10/11 pretax profit and net income were above our expectation because huge reversal in allowance for doubtful account of US$2,123,234 as of 9M10/11due to the first adoption of revised SFAS No. 50 and 55.

Other income was boosted by first time adoption of the revised SFAS. HEXA booked huge other income from reversal in allowance for doubtful account of US$2,123,234 due to the first time adoption of the revised SFAS No. 50 and 55. Previously, HEXA maintained allowance for doubtful account as a certain percentage of outstanding trade receivable. Under SFAS No. 50 and 55, allowance for doubtful account is calculated using impairment method which is recognized only when loss has been incurred (incurred loss model, not expected loss model).

More heavy equipment supplies from HEXA’s supplier. Hitachi Construction Machinery Indonesia (HCMI), the vendor of HEXA for small-size heavy equipment, is increasing its production capacity from 2,500 units/year to 3,000 units/year to fulfill increasing demand. The expansion is expected to be completed by 1H11. We think this is good for HEXA to meet domestic demand on heavy equipment as anticipated sizable growth in capital expenditure due to growth in construction and forestry industries as well as plantation and mining sectors.

Fine tune forecast and maintain Buy recommendation. We adjusted our FY11/12 forecast on other income and maintain our Buy recommendation on HEXA with DCF-derived TP of Rp9,000/share, which implies PER11/12F of 16.7x as we expect the boom in heavy equipment to continue.

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