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Sabtu, 12 Februari 2011

GLOBAL EQ STRAT Report: Short-term Reduce GEM from 25% to 10% Overweight! - Credit Suisse

GLOBAL EQ STRAT Report: Short-term Reduce GEM from 25% to 10% Overweight!
iSay: I think Indonesia Sovereign rating upgrades into Investment grades will still have upside as Indonesia Country risk as No 21 of 51 countries, and this table is rightly pointing Egypt as no 12 most risky! Arief Wana reiterates Market Weight. At JCI 3,374pts, CS Indonesia Universe is trading on 12.8x 2011F on the back of +24% EPS Growth, still at Discount to 15x average forward market PER during 1992-1997. Please note strong buy signal will be upon 10-years Bond Yield = earnings yield, therefore assuming current 8.9% earnings yield then 11.2x 2011F PER as a Buy signal. Stocks that CS like and currently trade at circa 11.2x 2011F PER are BMRI (@Rp5,600- 10.0x), BBRI (@Rp4,550- 10.6x), ITMG (@Rp44,650-11.3x), BBNI (@Rp3,350- 11.3x), TLKM (@Rp7,650- 11.5x), EXCL (@Rp5,200- 11.6x), SMGR (@Rp8,300-12.2x), PTBA (@Rp19,300- 12.3x), INDF (@Rp4,675- 12.4x), ASII (@Rp48,250- 12.9x), GGRM (Rp33,950-13.0x), BORN (@Rp1,570-13.0x), and PGAS (@Rp3,950- 13.0x)!

· Andrew Garthwaite (Report attached): Headwinds for emerging markets lead us to reduce GEM weightings from 25% to 10% overweight on a two-month (i.e. tactical) view. Yet, we stress that on a 3- to 12-month basis, we remain 25% overweight. Tactical headwinds include: Economic lead indicators suggest a sharp deterioration of GEM IP momentum relative to developed markets; high food prices (a third of CPI) mean headline inflation may not peak until mid-year; capitulation in emerging markets is not yet advanced.

· We stay overweight of GEM strategically: We think emerging markets should be trading on a 20–30% P/E premium to developed markets (compared with a 10% discount currently), given: their superior trend growth (on the back of superior productivity growth); better balance sheets (government, private and banks); higher RoE versus cost of debt than the US; nominal GDP and EPS volatility in line with that of developed markets; and undervalued currencies (except for the Brazilian real and the Turkish lira).

· We think the call within GEM is now more important than the call on GEM, with country correlations at a four-year low. Russia, Korea and China are the cheapest markets on our P/E model and our GEM strategist Sakthi Siva’s preferred picks, while the most expensive is India. Indonesia has underperformed global markets by 20% since the beginning of Q4 2010. Indonesia remains fairly-valued.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 06.17

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