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Rabu, 02 Februari 2011

Mandiri Sekuritas ADRO: Fairly trade, firm coal price…

Rich valuation should adjust and back to its fundamental (as seen from its forward PER band that has reverted to mean). Unrest in Egypt has surged crude oil price to US$100/brl, continued weather threats in Queensland, and indicated coal price contract between PLN and coal producers at US$114-115/ton have firmed coal prices level this year with Indonesia coal producers as the beneficiaries. We increase our coal benchmark price to US$115/ton which lead higher earnings growth for Adaro. We upgrade o ur ratin g from Neutral to Buy with higher TP of Rp2,800 implying 17.8xPER11F.  

Less coal from Tutupan, more coal from Wara. Adaro produced 10.4Mt coal in 4Q10 (-14.6% yoy, +1.4%) and sold 10.58Mt coal (-15.0% yoy, -0.3% qoq). FY10 coal production reached 42.2Mt (+4.0% yoy) including Wara portion of 2.5Mt and Paringin of 0.5Mt. These results were in line with the revised FY10 target but only 94% of the early year production target of 45Mt. For the Tutupan mine only, its production declined 3.2% yoy. We expect around 2.5Mt contracted volume in FY10 should be carried over to FY11 sales which potentially affect its FY11’s ASP.

Pit dewatering priority in 1Q11. In 4Q10 Adaro pumped 36% increase of 24.1mn m3, said equivalent to 9,640 Olympic sized swimming pool. Hence Adaro will give priority to pit dewatering in 1Q11. Overburden (OB) removal in 4Q10 reached 60.35 Mbcm (+10.1% yoy, +2.5% qoq) and FY10 increased 8.4% yoy to 226 Mbcm. This translated into higher SR of 5.8x in 4Q10 and 5.4x in FY10, in line with our expectation. Our panel checks reported that Tutupan has been a challenging mine for Adaro. Should Adaro keep its economical and reliable production, successful OPCC project and the 2x30-MW mine mouth power plant are required.

Higher price, higher earnings. We apply higher coal price benchmark up to US$115/ton (+9.5% previously) onwards, lead to higher ASP for Adaro of US$70.4/ton this year (+5.1%). As a result we increase our earnings estimates for Adaro up to Rp5,019bn (+8.8%) and Rp7,066bn (+19.2%) for FY11F and FY12F respectively. Please note, Adaro’s long term contract should lag to current year pricing with expected 50% volume based on last year Japanese benchmark.

Fairly traded, upgrade buy. Based on our earning estimates Adaro now trade fairly at 15.5xPER11F. Based on our new forecasts, we upgrade our TP up to Rp 2,800 implying 17.8xPER11F, offering 16.7% upside. We upgrade our rating to Buy.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 14.52

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