* Bumi Resources, Energi Mega, and the Bakrie Group – Vallares, an acquisition vehicle backed by Nathaniel Rothschild and former BP (BP.L) boss Tony Hayward will announce its intention to float as early as next week, according to Reuters. Vallares aims to raise around 1 billion pounds ($1.6 billion) to invest in oil assets. Sources said the group was aiming for a listing in the coming month, despite ongoing market volatility and an uneven success rate for European offerings. My take – I am most curious on the timing of the deal, that may reflect Mr. Rothschild’s confidence that his current deals can shine just before the launch of Vallares IPO. Investors with high risk appetite and wild imagination may start speculating on Energi Mega Persada (ENRG) being a take-over target for Vallares, in a similar deal structure to Bumi Resources. Energi Mega management will be in Singapore and Hongkong this Wed & Thu with JPMorgan, on a non-deal roadshow.
* Indonesia Coal Mining (Stevanus Juanda) – Buy Indo coal on drought, price control and lower import tax in China. We believe that demand from China could be the next catalyst that will push coal price and Indonesia coal stocks upwards: (1) Yangtze river (water supply into Three Gorges Dam with generating capacity of 18.2GW) is experiencing the worst drought in 50 years. (2) Potential price control on China domestic coal price. (3) Potential lowering of the VAT tax on imported coal. (4) Chinese IPPs have not been importing despite rising domestic demand; evidenced by imports down 27% YTD until April 11. BRAU, BUMI, INDY and HRUM are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of coal price increases.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=email&doc=GPS-605154-0.pdf
Senin, 06 Juni 2011
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