Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Selasa, 07 Juni 2011

Inflation, BUY companies with pricing power - CLSA

"The multibillion-dollar bailouts handed out by the US Government will bring on an onslaught of inflation" Warren Buffett 2009

Fast forward it two years, it appears not only these bailouts/handouts/printing/free money continues in the US, it seems that the phenomena has spread well into to Europe and Japan, three of the four biggest economies in the world going into a competitive devaluation cycle. Looking around today, you begin to see cost pushed inflation everywhere and be assured it is only going getting worse. As Willam Fung from supply chain mgmt giant Li and Fung have word it "What we will have for the next 30 years is inflation. A lot of Western managers have never coped with inflation."

Other than the obvious resources plays, you want to own a strongly branded business that can pass on higher costs to customers via price increases is desirable. A monopoly would be the most ideal (for the monopoly holders, obviously).

Interesting charts showing YTD performance of the Indonesia big three retailers (from Jessica Irene - CLSA research):
Mitra Adi (MAPI IJ) and Ace Hardware (ACES IJ) both have a strong brand and have complete dominance over their respective space. Their strong SSG numbers speaks for itself. This contrast sharply the performance of Ramayana where they there is little or no branding and operate at a highly competitive environment (you have at one end the hypermarts and the other moms and pops shops).

The reason Ramayana (RALS IJ) cited for the poor performance is they have not been willing to pay up for cotton based clothing (cloth prices doubled last 12 months) and instead chose to desperately look for supplier willing to see at discount prices. Clearly, their buyer/manager is not "coping" well with inflation. Such stark contrast to the fortunes of these retailers (ones with brand/pricing power and the other dont). Ramayana's EPS has grew a mere 10% since 2001, underperforming inflation by a massive margin.

Companies such as MAPI, ACES, Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ), and Unilever (UNVR IJ) face relatively mild competition, hence giving them strong pricing power to pass on rising costs. In times when costs deplete, they are comfortable to let margins expand by maintaining selling prices.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.15

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)