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Selasa, 07 Juni 2011

ASEAN remix: Lift Malaysia & Indonesia, lower Thailand - JPM

ASEAN: Back in focus as domestic demand theme resurfaces
As global growth momentum slows, we believe ASEAN will come back into focus because of domestic demand, reminiscent of mid-2010. However, performance within ASEAN differs more than investors think. Since earnings are largely mid-cycle and valuations are generally fair, we believe economic and earnings factors will drive performance within ASEAN.

Upgrade Malaysia and Indonesia to overweight
Malaysia and Indonesia both present strong domestic demand stories and have structural programs in place for medium-term economic improvements. Malaysia benefits the most from higher oil prices and positioning is light; Indonesia is ahead of the inflation curve and has the strongest earnings growth in this sub-region.

Downgrade Thailand due to macro and valuation concerns
Thailand has partially rerated but has weaker growth, higher inflation, and heavy foreign investor positioning. We believe election uncertainty, high oil sensitivity, and a lack of ‘top-down direction’ makes this unattractive from a risk/reward perspective.

We like ASEAN Top Picks, South East Asia domestic demand
We favor two alpha portfolios: a selection of our best bottom-up ideas, as well as a collection of ASEAN domestic demand stocks.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.20

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