Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Selasa, 07 Juni 2011

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ, Rp 47,100 BUY) Value remains - Danareksa

TP reduced to Rp55,000, still a BUY
We take into account the lower-than-expected 1Q11 results, along with new cost assumptions, which come from adjusting our depreciation rate and cost savings from the Bontang Power Plant. As a result, our FY11-12F EPS estimates are adjusted down by 9.9-7.5%. In the short term, we believe ITMG can take advantage of high coal prices, although we remain cautious on the company’s long-term prospects given its limited reserves. Our blended TP is reduced to Rp55,000, implying FY11-12F P/E of 14.1-12.1x. BUY call maintained.

Weak 1Q11 results, but should improve
ITMG’s 1Q11 results were weak. Apart from seasonally weak 1Q11 production volume, net income only reached US$95.2mn (+41.8% yoy) or just 17.8% of our FY11F forecast. We believe this is due to: 1) cost pressures from higher oil prices and 2) ITMG drawing on its coal inventories, which were mined in 4Q11 when costs were still high. ITMG, however, scored a gain on derivative transactions of US$9.5mn in 1Q11 due to gains on gas oil fuel contracts.

Tweaking our cost assumptions
We raise our cash cost estimates for FY11-12F to 41.0-37.8/t. The adjustment mainly comes from revisiting our cost saving assumption for the Bontang Power Plant, for which we consider our previous fuel savings assumptions too aggressive. Although the 1Q11 cash cost was high at US$41.5/t (+23.7% yoy), we believe it has already peaked since the oil price is currently on the downtrend, as evidenced by the declining Pertamina diesel price.

Still room for higher ASP this year
We maintain our FY11-12F ASP assumption at US$91.7-85.0/t. As of May 9th 2011, only 62% of ITMG’s targeted volume coal sales had been priced, with the remaining 24% and 14% being index linked contracts and unpriced, respectively. ITMG’s already-priced contracts were agreed at an average of US$87-88/t, which implies a benchmark price of US$113-114/t, or still below our benchmark price assumption for this year of US$129.8/t, or the current spot market price of US$119.3/t, therefore leaving some upside for higher ASP in the following quarters.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.18

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)