We downgrade to UW from OW and cut our PT to Rp3,750:
Despite the steady underperformance over a period of time, PGAS is a consensus buy (20 Buy/OW calls from 24 analysts). We think consensus’ unanimity reflects the view that last year’s supply constraints were temporary and volumes will bounce back, justifying the stock’s current trading multiples of 14x FY11E and 13x FY12E.
We think the likely slowdown in volume and earnings growth will challenge this view, and as the market adjusts to lower growth rates, underperformance could continue as slower earnings growth results in multiple de-rating. With this, we downgrade PGAS to UW and cut our PT from Rp5,400 (Dec-11) to Rp3,750 (Jun-12), implying 12x 12- month forward P/E multiple by Jun-12 vs. the current 14x.
Selasa, 10 Mei 2011
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