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Kamis, 12 Mei 2011

Indofood Agri Resources Ltd - Target price range of Rp1,060 to Rp1,700 per share for PT SIMP - ALERT - JP Morgan

• PT SIMP target price range set: According to a press release by IndoAgri, SIMP has announced a targeted indicative price range of Rp1,060 – Rp1,700 per share for its Indonesia IPO. This implies the following:
• 1) Valuation (based on our estimate for IndoAgri’s earnings growth): FY11E: 12.0x – 19.2x; and FY12E: 10.0x – 16.1x. Current Indonesia CPO sector average is 12.7x/11.3x for FY11E/FY12E.
• 2) Proceeds from listing the maximum 20% of SIMP: We estimate Rp3,353 billion – Rp5,378 billion (US$392 million – US$628 million); where: (a) 40% will be used for debt repayment; (b) 50% will be used for Plantation division new planting and maintenance, construction of processing mills and supporting infrastructure within 5 years; and (c) 10% will be used for Edible Oils & Fats division for the construction of production facilities and the purchase of vessels for CPO transportation.
• 3) Balance sheet of SIMP pre- and post-listing: Based on our estimates using data from IndoAgri’s financials and circular for the listing, PT SIMP has a net gearing of 81%, which will fall to 7%-26% post the listing, based on the above target price range.
• Target price range implies holding company discount of 0%-40% for IndoAgri: IndoAgri, which currently holds 90% of SIMP (and no other business), trades at 11.8x/9.9x FY11E/FY12E P/E, implying a holding company discount of 0%-40% based on FY12E targeted valuation for SIMP.
• IndoAgri likely to trade with a holding company discount: We believe that IndoAgri will likely trade with a holding company discount to SIMP’s valuation given that (1) there is no other business at the IndoAgri level outside of SIMP currently, and (2) IndoAgri’s receipt of SIMP’s dividend payout will be subject to withholding tax of 10% versus domestic SIMP shareholders who will be able to receive their dividends without incurring any withholding tax. Subsequently, any re-rating/closing of the holding company discount will depend on what assets IndoAgri acquires at the parent level.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 08.12

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