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Selasa, 10 Mei 2011

BSDE: Bringing in more crowds - Mandiri

Thanks to Indonesia’s continued stronger economic fundamentals economy, BSDE has been one of the beneficiaries of the robust demand in property, not to mention office space. We noted some land plots were sold in 2010 for offices to some companies such as Unilever Indonesia (Rp80bn), Freeport (Rp30bn) and AJBS (Rp100bn). Unilever alone will bring in up to 1,000 new jobs to the area, as it plans to use build its new HQs there. This will simultaneously boost demand for BSDE’s residential houses and ASP. As of Mar11, BSDE claimed its ASP has increased by 15% QoQ to Rp3.1mn/sqm, the fastest, at least, in the past 5 years. BSDE is one of our favorite property stocks. We upgraded our TP to Rp1,100/share. The stock currently trades at 49% discount to RNAV11F and PE11F 19.9x

1Q11 results in line. BSDE’s 1Q11 net profit accounted for 21% of our estimates. But, we considered this in line with our forecast considering cyclicality factor. Despite of a slip in gross margin to 61.0% (vs. 1Q10 63.4%) due to different product mix, but landed housing margin picked up to 46% (vs 1Q10 45%) on the back of further 22% increase in ASP for the past two consecutive years.

Non-CBD office development expands towards Serpong. Recent Procon Indah research highlighted growth of office development in the South Jakarta (Non-CBD), the area that witnessed the most active development in the last 5 years (see exhibit 2). It’s learned that demand has been encouraged by relocation of some multinational companies. As demand accelerates, we noticed the trend of relocation has seen to have expanded towards Serpong area in recent years, given its price attractiveness and close proximity to the residential area.

More commercial office development to boost land value. We noted some big companies have expanded their offices towards Serpong area, namely CIMB-Niaga, Permata Bank and Dexa Pharmaceutical, who relocated their offices to Bintaro (JRPT), about 10 minutes away from BSDE. The idea was then followed by Unilever (3ha), Freeport (7,000m2) and AJBS (2ha) who plan to relocate their HQs to BSDE after they have bought land plots there in 2010. These are expected to simultaneously boost demand of residential houses in the area, including BSDE that should be on top of the list given its competitive prices. We expect to see more major businesses to continue pouring into the area, which will positively affect its land value.

TP upgraded to Rp1,100/share, Buy. We continue to pick BSDE as one of our favorite property stocks. We upgraded our TP to Rp1,100/share. BSDE currently trades at 49% discount to RNAV11F and PE11F 19.8x.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 15.02

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