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Selasa, 10 Mei 2011

Perusahaan Gas Negara: Buy; Rp4,200; TP Rp4,850; PGAS IJ - DBS Vickers

PGAS cancels Duri gas pipeline

It was reported that Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) has cancelled the plan to build gas pipeline linking gas field in Duri to customers in Dumai and Medan due to lack of gas supply. However, we believe the impact from the cancellation should be minimal. We understand that there should be a small increase in gas supply of 100mmscfd in 2H as they are close to concluding negotiations with supplier and normalization of supply from ConocoPhillips should happen towards year end. However, we expect flat volume growth until LNG Terminal kicks in in FY13. We believe that PGN’s structural story remains intact with strong growth from FY13 and potentially higher tariff due to rising input cost.

We reiterate our Buy call for PGN with DCF-derived target price of Rp4,850 for its promising outlook and attractive valuation. PGN is trading at 14x FY11 PE, a discount to regional gas peers of 16x, but offers higher yields of 4% against peers’ average of 2%.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 14.38

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