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Selasa, 10 Mei 2011

International Nickel: Key takeaways from conference call (INCO, 4,825, Buy, TP: Rp6,700) - Mandiri

􀂄 The 2nd electric furnace rebuilt program will be taking partially 13 weeks shut down in 4Q11 and 8weeks in 1Q12. INCO expects 30% reduction in its production volume in 4Q11 from its normal capacity of 19-20k tons in 4Q10, translating production volume around 14k tons in 4Q11.
􀂄 Interestingly, INCO is expecting 71k tons production volume in FY11F, about 5% higher than our FY11F estimate of 68k tons. Taking into account this numbers, we might expect INCO needs to produce around 20k tons nickel in matte in 2Q11 and 3Q11 to compensate lower volume in 1Q11 due to earthquake in Sorowako
􀂄 Karebbe hydro electric project is expected to have 10 times cheaper energy cost compared to thermal cost. Overall, post the Karebbe project completion, we can expect around 6% reduction in its production cost per ton, considering its heavy fuel costs contributed around 45% of its total COGS, where diesel component contributed around 25% of overall fuel costs last year (we expect diesel consumption might reduce by 50% from current consumption, learned from 2009 figures when INCO turned off its thermal generators). And production volume is expected to grow gradually around 5-6% per annum up to its production target of 90k tons by 2015.
􀂄 Currently we have Buy rating on the stock. INCO is traded at 10.9xPER11F
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 14.43

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