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Senin, 07 Maret 2011

Timah: Fully Valued; Rp2,725; TP Rp2,300; TINS IJ 1Q11 production affected by bad weather - DBS Vickers

Timah CEO, Mr Wachid Usman, said that tin production was affected by bad weather as most of its ships could not operate. The company expects production to pick up in the second and third quarters before falling in fourth quarter due to the wet seasons. Timah is forecasting 37,000 tonnes of tin production this year, 7.5% lower than 40,000 tonnes in 2010, of which we believe most of the production will come from offshore as it plans to reduce inland production and tin purchases from third party in order to improve margins. We expect production cost per tonne from offshore operations to increase due to lower productivity and high fixed costs. Maintain our Fully Valued call, TP of Rp2,300/share based on blended valuations of DCF (11% WACC; 3% terminal growth), 12.5x FY11 PE, and 3.0x PBV. We believe that rising cost pressure will continue to be a problem despite of strong price outlook for tin.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.08

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