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Selasa, 08 Maret 2011

Borneo Lumbung Energi - 2Q11 HCC Premium quarterly pricing in the market appears to be in the range of US$300-330/t - Credit Suisse

● The market has reportedly various HCC premium price settlements in the range between US$300-$350/t for 2Q11.

● We believe that BORN’s high exposure to spot prices will benefit it this year given weather disruption resulting in supply shortage. Given BORN’s premium quality, we forecast a discount of 2-5% to BHP’s Peak Down and Saraji’s pricing for BORN’s ASP.

● We believe that BORN will mainly benefit from production rampup and strong coking coal prices. There could be upside to our ASP forecasts of US$230/t. Our sensitivity analysis show that at ASP of US$275-300/t, the current share price implies 2011E P/E of 7.6 – 8.8x. We are awaiting BHPB-BMA’s negotiation as well as the company’s pricing following such before re-visiting our ASP assumptions.

● We reiterate our positive view on BORN on the back of strong coking coal price and production ramp-up this year. Maintain OUTPERFORM at a target price of Rp2,200.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.24

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