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Kamis, 10 Maret 2011

Bukit Asam (Outperform) - Finally PLN contract is settled! - MACQUARIE RESEARCH

Event
§ PTBA reported its FY10 financial and operational results, with reported net profit down 26% YoY from Rp2.7tr in 2009 to Rp2.0tr in 2010, reflecting lower domestic coal pricing and Rupiah appreciation. The net profit figure was in line with our forecast, but came 6% below consensus.

§ Further, the company has also reported that the pricing for domestic coal with PLN is now completed. The average PLN contracts come in at Rp777k (up 21% YoY) and also 12% ahead of our expectations, implying a benchmark price of +/-US$120/t. This reiterates our Outperform recommendation on the stock.

Impact
§ FY10 sales volumes came slightly below expectation. FY10 sales volume came in at 12.95mt (up 4% YoY), which was slightly below our forecast of 13.1mt, mainly due to the lower than expected production at the IPC mine in Kalimantan (as it was affected by the severe weather conditions throughout the year). The company's relatively low YoY volume growth was also due to lower than expected capacity at the existing railway (railway capacity only grew by 3% YoY to 10.8mt vs. the original expectation of 11.5mt).

§ …and lower price is offset by lower costs. The company's FY10 ASP came in at US$67.5/t (down 2%YoY and lower than our US$69/t forecast), as lower domestic prices were offset by higher export prices. This in turn was offset by lower production costs, as COGS come in at US$36/t vs. our forecast of US$37/t.

§ 2011 production outlook appears solid. The company aims to increase its coal sales volumes from 12.95mt in 2010 to 16.8mt in 2011. This is higher than our 16.2mt forecast. The projected YoY sales volume increase is mainly driven by the increase in coal transportation capacity from 10.8mt last year to 13.6mt as well as ramp-up at the IPC mine.

§ +/-5% upside to our forecast. Assuming the higher domestic PLN contracts and sales volumes, adjusting for US$130-135/t JFY2011 contracts (vs. our US$145/t forecast), we still see roughly +/-5% upside to our current forecast and 15% upside to consensus. On this, the company trades on 11x 2011 PER and US$2.4/t EV/reserves (vs. the sector at US$12/t).

Earnings and target price revision
§ No change.

Price catalyst
§ 12-month price target: Rp 28,000 based on a PER methodology.
§ Catalyst: Completion of land acquisition for parallel railway project, increasing production and coal price

Action and recommendation
§ We reaffirm our Outperform recommendation on the stock with a Rp28,000 price target, given its strong long-term production growth outlook ( upon completion of ramp-up at the existing railway and completion of the parallel railway).
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.40

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