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Senin, 24 Januari 2011

Danareksa Sekuritas United Tractors (UNTR Rp 20,450 BUY) 12M10 operating results in line

Sales from the mining line still dominated, accounting for 61.3% of the total sales, which we believe shall be a good leading indicator that mining companies will be able to increase their production next year.
The 24.6% mom decline in heavy equipment sales in December 2010 owed to seasonality.
For 2011F, we expect Komatsu sales to reach 5,940 units, a 10% increase from the FY10 sales, on the back of firm orders from clients and also better coal prices that would give incentives to coal miners to increase production/the stripping ratio.

Mining contracting business
Pama dug 77.8Mt of coal and removed 650.9mnbcm of overburden in 12M10. This is in line with our forecast.
These numbers are 14.4% and 8.9% yoy higher compared to 12M09, respectively.
On a month-on-month basis, coal production and overburden removal increased by 7.6% and 1.8% in December 2010 compared to November 2010. This indicates recovery in coal mining operations.
We expect Pama to mine 88.6Mt of coal and to remove 753.3mn bcm of overburden in FY11F. There may be upside potential should coal companies decide to increase their stripping ratios in order to mine coal in deeper seams that is not economically recoverable during normal times.

Coal mining business
DEJ’s coal sales in 12M10 were in line with our forecast, reaching 2.6Mt, or in line with our forecast. TTA’s coal sales in 12M10, however, beat our forecast, reaching 0.5Mt vs our forecast of 0.3Mt.
December 2010’s production increased by 6.4% mom. On a yearly basis, the 12M10 figure represents a 7.6% yoy increase compared to 12M09.
We expect DEJ to sell 2.5Mt of coal in FY11F, with TTA coal sales expected to increase to 1.5Mt.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.37

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