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Rabu, 26 Januari 2011

Mandiri Sekuritas Government bond auction commentary

Strong demand for long-end tenors

The government sold Rp5.2tn in bonds slightly higher than their target of Rp5tn today.  Total bids reached Rp17.7tn almost double from the previous auction as yields have risen quite significantly during the week.  Bid-to-cover ratio reached 3.4, much higher than in the previous auction that was only 1.54. It indicates strong demand during the auction especially for the longest tenor i.e. 20-year FR54 which attracted bid of Rp8.02tn–or 45% of the total bids. Average yield awarded for the FR54 was 10.17% or 7bps higher than in previous auction. Meanwhile, for t he 10-ye ar FR53, the average yield awarded was 8.99% or 45bps higher than in the previous auction.  For the 15-year FR56 the average yield awarded was 9.8%.  The government again canceled the SPN issuance as investors bid for relatively high yields of between 6.56%-7.5% -our fair yield estimate was only 6.06% (range: 6.05-6.08%).  Our fair yield estimations for bonds are higher than the average yield awarded (Table 1).

Thus, the government has issued Rp11.2tn ytd.  In 1Q 2011, the government targeted to raise Rp38.5tn from bond issuances excluding retail and global bonds, slightly higher than 1Q 2010 of Rp37.4tn.  Total gross bond issuance targeted for this year is Rp200triliun.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 05.12

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