Within 2000 - 2010 periods there were 5 instances of yoy increases in 1-month SBI rates, including in 2010 where 1-month SBI rates rose 18bps. During those increases, two failed to stop the JCI from rising, namely in 2005 and 2010. 2005 was the year the government hiked fuel prices twice. During the yoy rates increases, the sectors mostly affected were basic Industries (major components of the index are cement companies) and properties. Basic Industry Index (JAKBIND) underperformed the JCI 4 times out of the 5 yoy increases in the 1-month SBI rate. Property index (JAKPROP) underperformed 4 times. What is interesting is the Financial Index (JAKFIN) performance was less correlated with the ups and downs of the BI rate.
We also noticed that the coal stocks, major components of the Mining Index (JAKMINE) were more sensitive to coal price movements than palm oil stocks (major components of Agriculture Index, JAKAGRI) to movements of palm oil price. This perhaps due to CPO export tax which also rises in percentage terms on rising CPO price. Consumer-good companies (JAKCONS) also had mix performance during rising commodity prices especially in 2008-2009, this perhaps due to market observation of these companies which demonstrated resilient margins.
Based on these historical performances, we suggest to continue underweight on cement and property stocks. Took advantage on the recent beaten-up financial and consumer stocks. In picking the stocks we prefer companies that will benefit from the consolidation in the respective industry due to the demise of medium-sized companies which are not able to withstand volatility in raw materials, as their sizes are not big enough to support their own storage facilities.
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