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Senin, 24 Januari 2011

Credit Suisse Indo: Motorcycle financing risk for BDMN- Take Profit

DANAMON: Consumer Survey indicates risk on motorcycle financing – Take Profit
iSay: BDMN IJ derives 37% of 2010F Loans from motorcycle financing and 40-50% of 2010F Earnings from motorcycle financing. Currently BDMN motorcycle financing (through 95%-owned ADMF) is 80% new motorcycle and 20% used motorcycle (higher rate but higher NPL and hence overall Credit Costs). Unless BDMN is changing business model, there is risk on motorcycle loans volume upside. Recent market talk on UNCONFIRMED single-presence policy for Temasek through merger (with DBS) or acquisition of BDMN had pushed the BDMN stock price up. However, fundamentally, BDMN is exposed to both this motorcycle earnings risk and possible rising Inflation/Interest rate risks, as BDMN has relatively low funding franchise (low CASA), high LDR and relatively lower working capital loans than peers! At Rp5,850, BDMN is trading on 12.2x 2011F PER with +35% EPS growth, 4.1% Dividend Yield, 2.4x 2011F PBR with 20.5% RoE, and 8% upside to Target Price Rp6,300, therefore I continue to recommend TAKE PROFIT BDMN and Prefer Banks with funding franchise (low CASA), low LDR and high working capital loans (BBRI, BBNI-Restricted, BMRI-watch rights issue overhang, and BBCA)!

·         Teddy Oetomo (Daily attached): In our first Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey, we find a higher penetration rate in the motorcycle financing segment (63%) than four-wheelers (28%) and property financing (8%). Our survey also finds lower interest for leverage-financed purchase of motorcycles ahead. We find that 37% of our respondents financed their current two-wheelers with all cash but the proportion would increase to 42% for future purchases.
·         Higher penetration and a maturing motorcycle financing segment may result in slower growth and potentially higher risk of competition, as new comers join the segment. The largest component of BDMN’s loan book is contributed by the motorcycle financing segment, imposing risk of softer growth ahead. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating on BDMN and target price of Rp6,300, implying 13x 2011E P/E and 2.5x 2011E P/B.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 15.03

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