Big report on Astra International (ASII IJ) – Cruising the J-curve by Sarina Lesmina
Analyst Sarina Lesmina comes out with a big report on Astra International (ASII IJ). Sarina anticipates that the near term headwind from inflation + fuel subsidy removal will be short lived.
Astra's well diversified balance sheet provides exposure to Indonesia's most attractive segments, resources and financial services while offering a dividend payout ratio above 30%. Net gearing stands at 42%, with cash of Rp8.6tn and debt of Rp28.0tn, while allocating Rp8.0tn for capex in 2011. Current weakness is a buying opportunity for ASII.
Key points:
· ASII is hedging inflation with its commodities business namely UNTR and AALI, contributing about 30% of ASII earnings. With CPO prices hitting US$1,200/t, every 5% rise will boost 9% of AALI’s earnings.
· Regulation in the auto sector (ban on cars subsidized fuel and higher vehicle taxes) will have a marginal impact but more of a short-term shock given lack of public transport and low car penetration at 4%. Motorcycles (18% of earnings) however are exempted from the ban.
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