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Senin, 03 Januari 2011

Ciptadana Securities Outlook 2011 Another good year

Another good year
Another bullish year of IHSG
Year of 2010 is cheered by investors as IHSG increased 39% year to date from the start of the 2010 to the end of November 2010. The index performance of IHSG is the best in the region. Some of the pundits call
for the overvaluation of IHSG and some pointed that the resilience of Indonesia’s economy and its seemingly bright future ahead deserves a premium, thus it is not an overvaluation at all. Joining the debate, we agree to the last group as we see the year of 2011 will be another good year for IHSG. We expect IHSG to reach 4,385 at the end of 2011 on the back of strong domestic economy, rising commodities, sovereign rating increase and stable currency rate

Economic growth still intact
Indonesia’s economy is expected to increase 6.1% in 2010 (Bloomberg consensus) . Although domestic consumption is still a dominant portion of the economy (more than 60% of the GDP), FDI shows trend of increase. The fact is encouraging as formation of fixed capital is the engine of the economic growth, enabling growth to be intact. The consensus expects that Indonesian economy will grow 6.3% in 2011
(Bloomberg consensus)

Higher inflation in 2011, but lower in the long term
We will see higher inflation in 2011 compares to 5% expected inflation in 2010 from consensus (Bank Indonesia gives much higher number of 6.5% expected inflation in 2010). The main reason for higher inflation is the expected increase of commodities in 2011. As the global economy recovery continues and liquidity is still flooding the financial market we see no reason the bull-run of commodities will stop in 2011. Suiting investor’s strategy with higher inflation expectation in 2011 is essential, in our view. Although we believe that inflation will be higher in 2011, the long term historical trend gives a hint that Indonesia is in a long term
trend of decreasing inflation.

Our preferred, neutral and least preferred sectors
Coal, heavy equipment, property and cement are our preferred sectors in 2011. We have a neutral view on banking, construction, consumers, and automotive. Telco is our least preferred sector that we recommend
investor to limit their exposure.

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