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Kamis, 06 Januari 2011

JPM Indo: Medco Energi - Senoro project launch is near

The long wait for Senoro project is about to end, after the anti-monopoly agency (KPPU) slaps only minor fine totalling to Rp31bn (Medco’s portion Rp5bn), but allowing the project to go ahead despite the alleged lack-of-competition during the project’s tender process. KPPU ruling should be the last regulatory/political obstacle for the Senoro project go-ahead. (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily, Kontan, MetroTVnews.com).

The KPPU announcement follows the signing of the Senoro FID (Final Investment Decision) on 31 Dec, with construction to start in Jan-2011 for Oct-2014 completion. Yesterday, there were press reports that subsidiary PT Medco E&P Tomori Sulawesi has signed the deal to sell a 20% stake in Senoro-Toili PSC, to Tomori E&P Limited, on 22 Dec.

One of my top 5 stock picks for 1H11. The launch of Senoro project should be a positive event for the stock. Newsflow on funding facilities for the project may be the next catalyst. There is room for 4Q10 earnings to surprise substantially, driven by a one-off gain from the sale of Senoro-Toili PSC. It would be sensible in my opinion to expect Medco paying a special dividend from the sale.

My recent meeting with Medco’s management suggests that the company is in the monetization mood, which often co-incides with positive newsflow and share price appreciation. There is room for Medco to farm-out Block A PSC later in 2011, realizing the capital gain while at the same time firming-up its true worth. There are press reports (12/29) that GoI will cut income tax on the sale of oil and gas blocks from 20% to 5% on exploration blocks, and to 7% on exploitation blocks. JPM rates O/W.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 09.01

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