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Selasa, 04 Januari 2011

CLSA from frontier to frontline

Our chart guru Laurence Balanco is predicting a melt up in gold price in 2011 (pls let me know of you want this report). If gold is following the Nasdaq bubble pattern or its own bubble pattern from the early 1980’s, we should see accelerated gains in the first half of 2011. His target range for the precious metals remains US$1,743-1,800/oz.

Rising gold price is also one of the Byron Wien (ex Morgan Stanley strategist)“surprise” lists for 2011. He is looking at gold price to rise > US$1600/oz. Investors around the world place more of their assets in something they consider“real”. Byron also looks at serious increase in demand for agri commodities todrive prices up and failure to bring onstream new supply causes oil price to rise to US$115/barrel.

Encouraged by weak US$ and strong demand for resources, 2011 could well be another commodity year. As an important producer of commodity, Indonesiawill also benefit. And Indonesia is predominantly a real economy, not a financial one. Only one person in four has a bank account and there are only about 300,000 stock brokerage accounts in this country. 

CLSA Jakarta HoR Dee Senaratne noted in his strategy piece today “From frontier to frontline” – see attached - that Indonesia can again perform in 2011. A strong macro backdrop, abundant liquidity, and still reasonable valuations (MSCI Indo at 14x 11 PER with 22% earnings growth and 26% ROE)continue to make Indonesia compelling. Investment grade status and rupiah appreciation are the key catalysts for the market.

Dee also highlighted in his report that out of 46% move in the JCI in 2010, 39%was due to earnings growth and only 7% was caused by forward multiple expansion. Indonesia’s 12-month forward PE multiple only expanded 0.9 points from 13.3x to 14.2x.

Dee recommends investors to OWT coal and CPO names. He has OWT on banks as his domestic proxy. Loan growth in the key here (expect 25-20% loan growth over the next five years). Inflation might cut into discretionary spending. But worth to remember that higher commodity prices will also mean higher income in the rural areas. To be on the conservative side, Dee is taking a more neutral stance on consumer, property, and auto.

His 12-month JCI index target is 4,600 or 25% upside based on forward multiple of 14x earnings.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.13

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