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Selasa, 04 Januari 2011

Indopremier COMPANY_NOTES MPPA_20110105 Status Quo

What is the status of MPPA or Hypermart? It is the most frequently asked question being raised by investor recently. Yet, the management informed us (on Mid Dec 2010), that there are four strategic invertors interested to invest in MPPA as controlling share holders and currently are in due diligence process.  The four investors have not yet submitted their bidding materials, hence only 50% chance that the potential acquisition will head to success. Although we are optimist about MPPA outlook, we view the stock price has rallied beyond its fundamental base.  SELL recommendation for MPPA with TP Rp 1,170,-.

Still in due diligence process
We believe the stock price rally was exaggerated in responding the sale of MPPA. The potential acquisition is in due diligence process and all of the four bidders have not submitted their bidding materials, hence there is no guarantee the acquisition may proceed.

Hypermart or MPPA?
If happen, we expect the acquisition would be at MPPA level.  Currently MPPA has Hypermart and non-hypermart assets (i.e., Times, TimeZone, FoodMart, Boston).  It would be troublesome for the potential investor to take over Hypermart assets and then form new company to run Hypermart.  We believe the choice would be either: 1) All of MPPA’s asset is sold; 2) or the non-hypermart assets is taking out from MPPA and left Hypermart as MPPA’s sole assets. 

Interim Cash Dividend of total Rp 3 tn
MPPA has declared again Rp 1 tn interim cash dividend that will be paid on 10th January 2011. With total interim cash dividend of Rp 3 tn, we assume that the management are more than ready to let go Hypermart and are optimist that the acquisition will head to success.

Revised Down Target Price to SELL Recommendation
SELL recommendation for MPPA with TP Rp 1,170 per share as we see the stock price has rallied beyond its fundamental. MPPA stock price has doubled from Rp 940 (beginning 2010) to Rp 1,840 in 13th Dec 2010, compared to Composite (IHSG) by 43.4% YTD in the same period. Our TP implies 18.6x PE11F and 6.9x EV/EBITDA 11F.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.28

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