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Rabu, 05 Januari 2011

CLSA Palm Oil and Soft Commodity

Palm oil association targeting 23 million tonnes production in 2011 by analyst Di Shui

The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (GAPKI) expects domestic CPO production of 23m tons in FY11, +9.5% YoY from 21m tons in FY10. Continuing weather disruptions and decreasing productivity of older (mainly smallholder) plantations represent key risks to this outlook, with GAPKI's bear case scenario set at +500k tons production YoY (+2%). 70% of Indo annual CPO output is committed to export, with India, China, the EU, Bangladesh, and Pakistan being the top destinations. 

Comment: We're likely to see the bulk of production gains in 2H11, assuming weather patterns normalize somewhat. Consensus on 1H11 production is still tight, given strengthening La Nina weather patterns, low pollination in 1H10-3Q10, and seasonality factors. 2H11 will likely see production recovery on the back of calmer weather, seasonality, biological cycle of trees (tend to produce more after period of low production), and immature plantings coming into maturity (somewhat hampered by rains in 2010). Supply constraints are likely to provide support for CPO prices early in the year and drive trading opportunities in CPO equities.

Soft commodity (soybean) update from Di Shui

Another government initiative to incentivize homegrown producers. The government has said multiple times in the past it wants Indo to be self sufficient in soybean production. Indo produces ~650k tons of soybeans and imports ~1.67m tons annually.

  • 90% of soybeans are used in tofu and tempe production.
  • Soybean meal is mostly imported and mainly used in feedstock.
  • This tax could negatively affect food producers (a significant amount of tofu/tempe are produced by mom and pop shops) and livestock breeders. Alternatively, tofu/tempe producers and livestock breeders could try to pass the tax on to end users, which would likely just contribute more to the food inflation outlook.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.15

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