Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Rabu, 23 Februari 2011

INVESTOR DIGEST Equity Research | 23 February 2011 - Mandiri Sekuritas

Medco Energi: Libya is rapidly getting worse, shut down exploration (MEDC, Rp3,150, Buy, TP: Rp4,600)
 After previous announcement that MEDC was still ongoing their exploration activities in Libya, in a matter of time, MEDC finally decided to temporally shut down the activities and began to evacuate expatriates working there. Monitoring result they conducted showed that situation is getting perplexed.
 Coping with such trim, MEDC has requested Libyan military to protect its oil and gas assets in Block 47 against any potential harm caused by the raging protesters. So far, we still appreciate MEDC’s steps on to preserve its assets, however we are still alarmed since we do not know how bad all the things are going to be. If civil war finally crack and the military guarding MEDC’s asset are outnumbered, then the assets are really in deep trouble.
 We are currently reviewing our forecast on MEDC, currently traded at EV/2P US$5.7/boe, PER 11F 19.3x, and PBV 11F 1.4x. Thus far, we maintain our Buy recommendation

AKR Corporindo: Special dividend yield of 9.1% (AKRA, Rp1,480, Buy, TP: Rp2,000)
 AKRA announced special dividend of Rp135/share or equivalent to 9.1% dividend yield, as expected. The dividend, amounting to Rp512bn, represents 30.5% payout from gain of Sorini divestment.
 Schedule:
 Ex date : 14 March 2011
 Payment date : 29 March 2011
 From our latest meeting with the company, they still commit on petroleum distribution business. They have been able to enter Papua market with very big market potential. They keep focusing on outside Java market with less competition and decent margin.
 We still maintain Buy recommendation on AKRA which currently is traded at adjusted PER11-12F of 17.8x-14.2x.

Astra Agro Lestari: Jan’11 CPO sales volume grow by 4.4%yoy (AALI, Rp22,250, Neutral, TP: Rp24,500)
 Astra Agro Lestari booked growth in Jan’11 CPO sales volume by 4.4%. Jan’11 CPO sales volume inline with our
expectation. Jan’11 CPO sales volume represents 8.6% of our FY11F CPO sales volume assumption of 1,103,398 ton.
 We have a Neutral recommendation on AALI. AALI is traded at PER11F of 14.4x.

Summarecon Agung: SMRA to book 50% increase net profit in 2011 (SMRA, Rp1,010, Neutral, TP: Rp1,080)
 SMRA said in Kontan today that the company is set to record an increase of net profit up to 30% for FY10. Given FY09 net profit of Rp167.3bn, the increase is equivalent to Rp217.5bn, which in line with ours but slightly below consensus. For 2011, the news reported for the company looks for an increase 20% of bottom line. But the company denied this following our call-checking. They mentioned of top-line to booked at range Rp2-2.2tn, coming with similar net margin as what in 2010 of about 15%. This implied to bottom line figure of ±300bn (+50%), in line with our forecast of Rp310bn.
 Maintained margin in 2011 was assured, given similar product-mix that the company is delivering in previous year (70% landed-houses; 30% rest portfolio). We may only see lowered margin at end of 2012, as new apartment project entered by the company that aimed only to offer 20-25% GPM. They said to boost more on sales volume during the year, hence sustainable growth is continuously seen.
 Currently we have Neutral recommendation on SMRA with TP Rp1,080/share, by applying 45% discount to RNAV11F. It is traded at PER11Fof 21x and discount to RNAV11F of 54%.

Bukopin: Government did not participate in the Bukopin’s rights issue (BBKP, Rp540, Not rated)
 It is reported that the government of RI has finally decided not to subscribe to the recent BBKP’s recent rights issue. Consequently, the government’s ownership in BBPK will dilute to 14.1% from 16.9% previously.
 Meanwhile, three other major shareholders of BBKP: Kopelindo, Yabinstra and Kopkapindo didn’t participate on the rights issue either and for that reasons, they managed to sell its rights to other investors at Rp40/share.
 As the government decided late, the government didn’t get the Rp40/share rights hence losing its opportunity to get Rp41.6 bn of funds.
 At current price, based on consensus the stock is traded at PER11F of 7.0x and PBV11F of 1.3x. We have no rating on this counter.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 20.05

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