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Kamis, 24 Februari 2011

$6.4 rubber prices driving Indo consumption - LSIP and UNSP benefits - CLSA INDO

Another slice of plantation nation... how surging rubber prices are driving Indonesian domestic consumption by analyst Di Shui

§ Indonesia has the most rubber plantings by acreage globally, with an estimated 3.5m ha of plantings and 2.8m tons rubber production in 2010.

§ 85% of rubber estates are run by smallholder farmers, with on average 1-2 hectares each. This implies a minimum of 1.5m smallholder rubber farmers in Indonesia.

§ According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, Indonesian rubber production likely rose 16.5% YoY in 2010, mostly on the back of smallholders exploiting maximum yields from over-aged trees.

§ The average yield for smallholders is 750kg per ha. (Indonesia Directorate General of Estate Crops)

§ Our on the ground Komodo check suggests smallholder rubber ASP of Rp44,500/kg, or Rp33.375m annually at current prices. Annual upkeep runs ~Rp5m.

§ This means in the current market, the average smallholder farmer, with his 2ha of rubber plantings, is taking home up to ~Rp4.7m per month, nearly US$530/month and more than double GDP/capita.

§ Chunky dispensable income. If rubber farmers are similar to their oil palm counter parts, we reckon cigarettes, motorcycles, and cell phone sales are thriving in rubber land too. This would make companies like Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Astra Int’l (ASII IJ) happy beneficiaries of surging rubber prices.

Slice of Life note on plantation-driven Indo consumption attached.

Economist Tony Nafte reminded us that this is also another reminder that inflation pressures will persist as consumer demand firms.

And for direct exposure to upstream rubber producers, we offer 2 Indonesian plantation companies.

London Sumatra (LSIP IJ)
Market cap: US$1.62bn
3M ave T/O: US$5m
Rubber makes up 17% of total planted estates and accounted for 14% of operating profits in 9M10. At Rp10,800/share, the stock is trading on 11.2x CL11 earnings. We use a FY11 average prices of US$1,000/ton for CPO and US$4/kg for rubber, representing a 20% and 60% discount to current spot rates respectively. Every US$100/ton increase to CPO price forecast will boost earnings by 16% and

Every US$1/kg increase to rubber price forecast will boost earnings by 8%.

Bakrie Sumatera (UNSP IJ)
Market cap: US$520m
3M ave T/O: US$4.2m
Rubber makes up 14.5% (19k ha) of UNSP's 133k ha total plantings. Of this, 14k ha or 74% are mature.

In 9M10, rubber accounted for 35% of revenue (up from 20% in 9M09), and 40% of gross profits (vs 25% in 9M09). The company is not under coverage. At Rp330/share, UNSP is trading on 9x consensus FY11 earnings.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.02

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