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Rabu, 19 Januari 2011

Morgan Stanley : PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA.JK): Waiting for the Rail Deal

Investment conclusion: We have raised our earnings for 2011E by 15% and for 2012E by 14% on the back of higher coal prices. This is due mainly to the expected increase in the regional seaborne thermal coal price in 2011 from US$105 to US$130. We expect PTBA to achieve an ASP of US$84 in 2011, a 23% improvement on 2010. Yet despite the improving ASP, we remain concerned about its slow railway expansion. PTBA's rail capacity is effectively a ceiling over PTBA's realizable value, and any future misses could be a very negative surprise. Accordingly, we have increased our target price for PTBA to Rp22,800 to reflect higher ASP assumption but maintained our Equal-Weight rating, given execution risks and unattractive valuations.

Looking for better entry levels: We appreciate that future infrastructure development will theoretically unlock additional value from PTBA's vast quantity of high-quality resource base, although the value creation will be mostly backend loaded. However, based on the development so far, the railway bottleneck will not be resolved in the short term, amidst unusually heavy rainstorms and delays in locomotive shipments. Nonetheless, we are comforted by the regional thermal coal price increases and are monitoring PTBA for potential entry points to help investors realize the long- term value from its huge reserves of high-quality coal (reserves of 2bn tonnes at around 6,000kcal/kg).

PTBA's valuations are trading slightly above its peers'; however, its absolute stock price has underperformed the market. After the recent stock market run-up, PTBA is trading at a '11 P/E of 14.1x and 9x '11-EV/EBITDA, vs. 14.3x and 7.4x for its regional peers. We maintain our Equal-Weight rating and look to capitalize on potential entry points should the stock price pull back as expectations are reduced.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.41

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