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Sabtu, 22 Januari 2011

Mandiri Sekuritas Agung Podomoro Land: APLN indicates 2010 earnings to in line with our expectation and to further acquire several new projects in 2011 (APLN, Rp360, Buy, TP: Rp430)

􀂄 We went visit to APLN’s several main projects yesterday, including Podomoro City, Kuningan City (KC), Green Bay Pluit (GB), Green Lake Sunter (GL) and the newly acquired Green Permata, Pos Pengumben (GP), and took some highlights as follow:

􀂄 APLN pleased us with its 2010 sales data fact. Total marketing sales was booked at Rp2.8tn, coming from its company’s current 12 pipe-line projects, incl. GL, a project which land the company recently acquired in Dec10 using proceed of its IPO. The company set an ambitious 5.5tn sales target in 2011, which will be expected mainly from GB and CP, and also to include the newly acquired GP.

􀂄 The highly expected 2010 chunk sales contributor, Central Park (CP) and KC apartments reportedly booked portion of sales that leaving only 31% and 9% out of total 1,026 and 960 units, respectively, in line with our estimation for KC although slightly below for CP, yet this was offset by the strata-title office sales that remained 25% out of total 44,869m2 NSA. Projects’ % of completion run as expected (CP apt: 66%; KC apt: 57%), which our 2010 earnings target of Rp242bn was assured to be achieved. The figure implies to ROE 10F of 9.2%, but this expected to increase to 12.7% in 2011.

􀂄 Following recent GP 14.3ha land acquisition, the company indicated that they are now in a close discussion of 6 new potential projects, which among others a project located in prime area of Jakarta and a 40ha project in outskirt Jakarta. Such active expansion that we expect continuously seeing from company going forward having minimal land bank that it holds. Furthermore, Trihatma Haliman, the CEO and also company’s founding shareholder, envisaged that he is now seeing APLN to be his only focused business in the future, putting aside the Agung Podomoro Group, where this is in order to show his commitment in ensuring further growth of APLN business being a public company

􀂄 APLN is our property top pick. We have buy on the stock, currently trades at an attractively PE11F 13.7x and 24% discount to our RNAV11F.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 05.28

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