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Sabtu, 22 Januari 2011

JP Morgan Indo : more negative noise for PTBA

Profit taking candidate: PTBA
More negative noise for sellers of domestic coal
JCI index selling (and possibly shorting) continues perhaps on technical reason (lack of technical support and new stock issuance). Indonesia market ETF (IDX US, Market Cap US$503mn) fell 3.6% overnight on record volume of US$53mn.

Profit taking candidate from the desk today is the domestic coal supplier PTBA, a company with a habbit of disappointing market expectations in Q4 (on cost) and Q1 (on selling price). So far, politicans want to appear as though they are doing everything they can to keep electricity price from going-up further (for popularity perhaps). This morning they talk about stopping the export of low CV coal, following the statement from PLN regarding their 2011 coal price negotiation. The development favours high CV coal producers.

Secretary of DG Minerals Witoro Sularno was quoted in the press this morning as saying that there is a plan to stop the export of thermal coal with CV under 5600kcal. The government will require the coal to be crushed and upgraded, before they got exported. There was a parliamentary hearing on the matter yesterday for DPR commission VII.

This event follows the 13-Jan press statement from PLN’s energy director, Nur Pamudji, saying that PLN wants to utilize energy ministry decree no 17/2010, allowing them to set 2011 contract price using the average benchmark price in 4Q10.

This series of events could spell trouble for PTBA. Stevanus Juanda (analyst) recently raised his year 2011 ASP assumption for PTBA, from US$81.6/ton to US$92.4/ton, compared to year 2010 ASP forecast of US$68.0/ton. On his new forecast the stock trades on 15.3x 2011 P/E, versus peer average of 12.3x. His FY10 EPS is 9% below consensus, while his FY11 EPS is 5% below.

His US$92.4/ton ASP assumption could be at risk. Implied from Steve’s FY10 forecast is the ASP of US$72.8/ton for 4Q10. If PLN wins the case and use 4Q10 ASP to price its coal for year 2011, the realized ASP can be more than US$10/ton lower (vs Street’s assumption) for PTBA.

Steve rates PTBA O/W and top pick, but on a rising coal export price environment my personal preference goes to the more leveraged plays and INDY.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 05.23

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