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Rabu, 19 Januari 2011

JP Morgan Indo Borneo Lumbung Energi (BORN): company visit

JPMorgan sales desk (Verdi Budiman) paid a visit to the newly listed premium hard coking coal producer BORN yesterday, meeting with marketing director Ken Allen. First impression is positive, risk of execution and earnings disappointment may not be not as high as feared by the market. Its unique coal characteristics makes BORN an attractive take-over candidate, and a long term play on Indonesia’s infant (but fast growing) steel making industry (BORN and Krakatau Steel now account for 1.6% of JCI index).

* Currently selling its coal at US$275/ton mostly, despite quarterly contract price of US$220/ton. Asking price today is US$320/ton, but no takers as of yet. IPO assumption for full year ASP is around US$190/ton.

* January 2011 output run rate is between 250-260k tons per month, or an annualized figure of around 3mn tons. IPO guidance for year 2011 production and sales is 3.6mn tons.

Based on: (1) Cash cost assumption of US$70/ton, (2) Royalty of 13.5%, (3) Selling fee of 4.5%, (4) Depreciation cost assumption of US$11/ton, (5) Debt level of USD25mn at 4.25% cost, and (6) Tax rate of 25%, my own simple calculation brings me to the following analysis:

* 1Q11 results may account for 40-50% of full year 2011 profit expectations at the time of IPO. If I assume a monthly run-rate of 250k tons and an average ASP of US$275/ton, 1Q11 net income may hit US$86mn vs. full year IPO guidance of US$177mn.

* Still big upside to 2011 consensus net profit forecast of US$219mn, if coking coal price stays at current level. If I assume a monthly run-rate of 250k tons and an average ASP of US$275/ton, year 2011 net income may hit US$299mn (68% above IPO guidance) (12x P/E).

* If the company can hit IPO volume guidance of 3.6mn tons for year 2011 (monthly run rate of 300k), and an average ASP of US$275/ton, year 2011 net income may hit US$364mn (106% above IPO guidance) (9.8x P/E).
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 09.29

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