Event
§ We reiterate our Outperform recommendation on Harum Energy and raise our price target from Rp8,000 to Rp11,500, representing 24% upside to the current share price. This is on the back of our global commodities team upgrading their thermal coal price forecast by about 20-38% to US$145/t (JPY11) and US$120/t (JPY12), which we believe is about US$20/t above consensus. This leads us to be 30-60% above consensus in 2011-12.
Impact
§ D ifferentiated thermal coal view . Consensus believes that coal prices have peaked; however we see the potential for continued supply disruptions, coking coal producers prioritising coking coal vs. thermal through the supply chain, and thermal coal being upsold into PCI/Semi-soft markets leading to shortage in 2011. In 2012 we expect the market to remain tight due to strong Indonesian and Indian demand, which combined with increasing Chinese costs should lead to robust Chinese imports.
§ 2011 production remains on-track. Our recent conversation with the company suggests that it remains on-track to increase its production from 7.3mt in 2010 to about 10.5mt in 2011 (the company is currently producing about 700kt per month or 80% of the 2011 production target with more capacity to come-on throughout the year). This compares favourably vs. the industry's 2011 production forecast which we have downgraded by about 6%.
§ Large pricing exposure in 2011. We understand that the company has merely priced in about 20% of its 2011 production forecast at around US$90/t ASP. Hence, it is still well-exposed to the rising coal price environment.
§ Attractive valuation. We believe that the stock is attractively valued trading on 10x and 9x 2011-12E adjusted PER vs. the historical sector average of 13x. We have changed our Asean coal valuation methodology from DCF to PER as we now expect the coal market will trade at a significant premium to the cost curve over the next three years, and therefore that stocks will trade at a premium to DCF. Our price targets are based on a 12x PER in 2011E and 11x in 2012E.
Earnings and target price revision
§ We upgrade our earnings by 31-46% in 2011-12 due to our higher coal price assumptions, leading us to be 30-60% ahead of consensus.
Price catalyst
§ 12-month price target: Rp11,500 based on a PER methodology.
§ Catalyst: Continuous increase in coal price and reserves upgrade.
Action and recommendation
§ We reiterate our Outperform recommendation on Harum with a revised price target of Rp11,500. The stock is one of our key picks in the regional coal sector and we believe consensus upgrades will drive share performance.
Selasa, 18 Januari 2011
MACQUARIE RESEARCH Harum Energy (Outperform) - Set to steam in 2011
Langganan:
Posting Komentar (Atom)
-
►
2014
(7)
- ► 04/06 - 04/13 (1)
- ► 03/09 - 03/16 (1)
- ► 02/23 - 03/02 (1)
- ► 02/16 - 02/23 (1)
- ► 01/19 - 01/26 (1)
- ► 01/05 - 01/12 (2)
-
►
2013
(18)
- ► 12/29 - 01/05 (1)
- ► 07/07 - 07/14 (1)
- ► 05/19 - 05/26 (1)
- ► 04/14 - 04/21 (1)
- ► 03/17 - 03/24 (1)
- ► 02/17 - 02/24 (3)
- ► 02/10 - 02/17 (6)
- ► 01/27 - 02/03 (3)
- ► 01/06 - 01/13 (1)
-
►
2012
(80)
- ► 12/30 - 01/06 (1)
- ► 12/23 - 12/30 (1)
- ► 12/16 - 12/23 (5)
- ► 12/02 - 12/09 (5)
- ► 11/25 - 12/02 (2)
- ► 11/11 - 11/18 (1)
- ► 11/04 - 11/11 (1)
- ► 10/21 - 10/28 (2)
- ► 10/14 - 10/21 (3)
- ► 10/07 - 10/14 (2)
- ► 09/30 - 10/07 (4)
- ► 09/23 - 09/30 (3)
- ► 09/16 - 09/23 (1)
- ► 09/09 - 09/16 (1)
- ► 09/02 - 09/09 (4)
- ► 08/26 - 09/02 (3)
- ► 08/19 - 08/26 (2)
- ► 08/12 - 08/19 (1)
- ► 08/05 - 08/12 (7)
- ► 07/29 - 08/05 (2)
- ► 07/22 - 07/29 (3)
- ► 07/15 - 07/22 (3)
- ► 07/08 - 07/15 (4)
- ► 07/01 - 07/08 (5)
- ► 06/17 - 06/24 (3)
- ► 06/10 - 06/17 (1)
- ► 06/03 - 06/10 (1)
- ► 05/27 - 06/03 (1)
- ► 05/20 - 05/27 (1)
- ► 04/29 - 05/06 (1)
- ► 04/22 - 04/29 (1)
- ► 04/08 - 04/15 (2)
- ► 04/01 - 04/08 (1)
- ► 03/25 - 04/01 (2)
-
▼
2011
(3338)
- ► 10/02 - 10/09 (2)
- ► 09/18 - 09/25 (20)
- ► 09/11 - 09/18 (76)
- ► 09/04 - 09/11 (37)
- ► 08/21 - 08/28 (60)
- ► 08/14 - 08/21 (76)
- ► 08/07 - 08/14 (99)
- ► 07/31 - 08/07 (114)
- ► 07/24 - 07/31 (99)
- ► 07/17 - 07/24 (55)
- ► 07/10 - 07/17 (59)
- ► 07/03 - 07/10 (51)
- ► 06/26 - 07/03 (56)
- ► 06/19 - 06/26 (64)
- ► 06/12 - 06/19 (83)
- ► 06/05 - 06/12 (73)
- ► 05/29 - 06/05 (75)
- ► 05/22 - 05/29 (52)
- ► 05/15 - 05/22 (69)
- ► 05/08 - 05/15 (67)
- ► 05/01 - 05/08 (133)
- ► 04/24 - 05/01 (167)
- ► 04/17 - 04/24 (55)
- ► 04/10 - 04/17 (131)
- ► 04/03 - 04/10 (107)
- ► 03/27 - 04/03 (147)
- ► 03/20 - 03/27 (131)
- ► 03/13 - 03/20 (148)
- ► 03/06 - 03/13 (114)
- ► 02/27 - 03/06 (141)
- ► 02/20 - 02/27 (113)
- ► 02/13 - 02/20 (58)
- ► 02/06 - 02/13 (111)
- ► 01/30 - 02/06 (90)
- ► 01/23 - 01/30 (119)
-
▼
01/16 - 01/23
(85)
- Bahana Sekuritas FW: Bahana Spotlight: Bumi Resour...
- CLSA Clipan Finance, Pedal to the metal - initiati...
- AAA Securities PT Astra International Tbk
- Mandiri Sekuritas Bumi Resources : 2010 revenue es...
- Mandiri Sekuritas Agung Podomoro Land: APLN indica...
- Mandiri Sekuritas Coal sector: GoI may ban low-ran...
- NISP Sekuritas Daily 21 Jan 2011 (Economy, BMRI, B...
- News article BHP faces six-month flood disruption
- JP Morgan Indo : more negative noise for PTBA
- UBS INDO: significant selloff in bonds and MSCI In...
- Indonesia Today Indonesian Stocks Crashed, Composi...
- Indonesia Today Inco Argued to Stop Operating in P...
- Indonesia Today Bumi Expects 50% Growth in Revenue...
- Bloomberg Indonesia Stocks Fall to Four-Month Low...
- Bloomberg Oil Falls Most in Nine Weeks on China R...
- Bloomberg Commodity Currencies Fall as Concern Ab...
- CLSA Feng Shui Index 2011 YEAR OF THE RABBIT 4708 ...
- UBS INDO Indo Tambangraya Megah (Neutral, PT Rp57,...
- UBS INDO Bumi Resources (Sell, PT Rp2,800, 11% dow...
- UBS INDO Bukit Asam (Sell, PT Rp20,000, 13% downside)
- UBS INDO Adaro Energy (Neutral, PT Rp2,800, 8% ups...
- UBS INDO Indonesian Coal: We downgrade our ratings...
- Shanghai Indonesia's Alfindo Plans $100 Million Re...
- Korea Times Asian retail market may continue to gr...
- Reuters SK Telecom, KDDI bidding for Indonesia's F...
- JP Morgan Indo : BRMS, MLPL, CTRA market moving news
- Bloomberg Indonesia Stocks: Bank Mandiri, Indofood...
- Bloomberg Queensland Cuts Coal Output Forecast 10....
- Reuters Only 15 pct of Queensland coal mines fully...
- The Indonesia Today Elnusa Operates New Barge, Sec...
- Mandiri Sekuritas Building material: Inflationary ...
- CLSA INDO: Bank update from Bret Ginesky
- CLSA INDO: Indo telco sector, put on hold
- CLSA INDO: Most leveraged play will be Bumi and ITMG.
- MACQUARIE RESEARCH Adaro Energy (Outperform) - Loo...
- Deutsche Bank Telkomsel targets higher net adds in...
- Morgan Stanley : PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (IT...
- J.P. Morgan Indonesia Indonesia Telecom: 4Q10/FY11...
- Morgan Stanley : PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (P...
- The Indonesia Today Olympus Capital Rebuts Stateme...
- The Indonesia Today Sigmantara to Sell Alfamart fo...
- BANK MANDIRI (BMRI IJ) - BOOKS OPEN FOR PLACEMENT
- NISP Sekuritas Daily 19 Jan 2011 (Cement, BMRI, AA...
- JP Morgan Indo Borneo Lumbung Energi (BORN): compa...
- Bloomberg Indonesia Stocks: Bank Danamon, Bumi Re...
- The Street China's Serious Coal Problem
- MEPS Steel Prices Online World Steel Price To Top ...
- BNamericas Iron ore prices forecast to rise by 22p...
- Business Times CPO futures prices rebound
- Bloomberg U.S. Stocks Rise on Commodities Rally, ...
- OkeZone Ini Dia Aturan-Aturan Baru di BEI
- Mandiri Sekuritas Economy: Inflation fears trigger...
- Nomura Coal mining Indonesia (Update 6) Bumi Resou...
- Nomura Coal mining Indonesia (Update 5) Tambang Ba...
- Nomura Coal mining Indonesia (Update 4) Indo Tamba...
- Nomura Coal mining Indonesia (Update 3) Adaro Energy
- Nomura Coal mining Indonesia (Update 2) ADRO and I...
- Nomura Coal mining Indonesia (Update 1)
- Indopremier TLKM 2011: Change of view
- Lautandhana Securindo Focus Research INDY 18 Janua...
- MACQUARIE RESEARCH Harum Energy (Outperform) - Set...
- Bahana Sekuritas Ciputra Development - Geographica...
- CLSA INDO: property sector as inflation hedge
- MACQUARIE RESEARCH Regional coal - Smoking hot the...
- BNP ASEAN conf: Indofood
- Mandiri Sekuritas Cement Sector:Cement records 6.3...
- Bloomberg Bank Internasional, Krakatau, Wahana: In...
- Credit Suisse Indonesia Banks Sector - Expect uptr...
- NISP Sekuritas Daily 18 Jan 2011 (Economy, UNTR, K...
- CLSA INDO: AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ), proceeds usag...
- CLSA INDO: United Tractors (UNTR IJ), most downsid...
- CLSA INDO: consumer sector, headwinds looming
- Financial Times CIC seeks more funds out of China ...
- Detikfinance Peringkat RI Naik, Satu Tingkat di Ba...
- Financial Times King Nat’s mines
- Reuters PRESS DIGEST 17-01-2011
- NISP Sekuritas Daily 17 Jan 2011 (ITMG, AALI, MPPA...
- Citigroup Indonesia Coal - Risks Are Not All One Way
- Indonesia's Lippo Puts First Media Up for Sale (As...
- JPM Indo: downgrading TLKM to Neutral
- Citigroup Coal - too early to take profit? (17 Jan...
- Detikfinance Menakar Harga Saham IPO Garuda
- Bloomberg Indonesia Stocks: Bakrie Sumatera, Kalb...
- MarketWatch Asia watching China inflation, GDP growth
- Commodity Online Is commodities market in a bubble?
- ► 01/09 - 01/16 (91)
- ► 01/02 - 01/09 (110)
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar