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Rabu, 18 Mei 2011

SMGR Undemanding valuation - Kim Eng

What’s New
􀂃 Semen Gresik Group (SGG) posted 1Q11 net profit of Rp871b (Rp147/share), 9% y/y higher compared to 1Q10 figure of Rp802b.
􀂃 Margin held relatively well in the quarter. EBITDA margin dipped only slightly to 33.3% in 1Q11 from 34.2% in 1Q10.

Our View
􀂃 Overall a solid set of result, with 1Q11 bottom line figure comprising 24% of our FY estimate of Rp3.56t. The first quarter historically contributed only 20‐22% of FY net profit for the group.
􀂃 1Q11 revenue was 9% y/y higher at Rp3.55t despite tepid sales volume growth of 2% y/y at 4.34m tonnes, including export, implying higher ASP as the main reason. Further increase is possible, but would likely be capped, as SGG is reluctant to lose further market share.
􀂃 Notwithstanding the strong result, we opt to leave our forecast unchanged as further margin compression is imminent. SGG has not contracted 50% its coal needs for FY11 and subsequent purchase would be settled at a higher price compared to current contracted price of ~US$85/tonne. McCloskey index averaged at US$123/tonne in 1Q11, 18% and 34% higher compared to that in 4Q10 and FY10.

Action & Recommendation
􀂃 We maintain our BUY recommendation on Semen Gresik. It remains the cheapest play in the sector at 15.6x 2011F PER vis‐à‐vis 17.7x and 18.2x for Indocement and Holcim respectively. SGG also offers the highest dividend yield. The company indicates 40% payout from FY10 net profit or around Rp306/share, yielding 2.6% at current price, exceeding that of Indocement and Holcim at 1.6% and 1.0%. Our TP of
Rp10,850 reflects 18.1x and 15.5x 2011F and 2012 PER respectively.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.13

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