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Kamis, 19 Mei 2011

Corporate Flash Gozco Plantations - Bahana

Raised earnings on higher FFB purchases; Still upside to our numbers
§ Following GZCO’s Investor Day presentation yesterday, we have increased our CPO production numbers on higher purchased FFB estimate of 108k tons (from 94k tons previously), up 50% y-y, a recovery to 2009’s level.
§ Our higher production translates to 2011 revenue forecast of IDR610b (+34% y-y), 5% higher than our previous projection (exhibit 5). However, since we expect lower ASP in 2H11, our top line figure is still behind the management’s guidance.
§ Additionally, we believe there is still upside to our revised-up earnings as subsidiary Indotruba could continue to book higher than expected earnings in the subsequent quarters (1Q11 net contribution of IDR34b, +147% y-y).

Outlook We expect GZCO to continue experiencing improved productivity and profitability going forward. We forecast GZCO’s 2011 top line to reach IDR610b (+34.3% y-y) with bottom line of IDR193b (+20.2% y-y), helped by strong production growth (+36.2% y-y) coupled with higher ASP of USD876/ton (+6.3% y-y).

Recommendation and valuation GZCO is undemanding on 2011 PE of 10.1x, 28% discount to the sector, particularly given 2011 PEG of 0.6x, compared to the sector’s 2011 PEG of 1.1x. Even through the company’s fast growth period, GZCO will still provide 2011 dividend yield of 2.7%, in line with the market and slightly higher than the sector’s 2.3% yield. In line with our revised up earnings, we also increase our target price (TP) on GZCO to IDR490, representing 2011 PE of 12.7x, 14% below the sector’s target PE of 14.8x. However, at our new TP, GZCO’s PEG remains attractive on 0.8x. BUY!
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 21.50

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