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Kamis, 19 Mei 2011

Kalbe Farma: Hold; Rp3,550; TP Rp3,800 prev Rp3,275; KLBF IJ Higher dividend to enhance shareholder value - DBS Vickers

• 50% FY10 dividend payout, a historical high
• FY11-12F earnings revised up 7-8% on stronger Rupiah
• Rich valuations; Maintain Hold with TP raised to Rp3,800

High dividend payout could stay. In its upcoming AGM, Kalbe will propose a historical high dividend of 50% of its FY10 earnings. Given the difficulties in M&A and its strong cash position at Rp 2.1tr as of March 31, 2011, the company has raised its payout significantly to give back to its shareholders. Over the time, we believe higher payout would be the alternative to improve Kalbe’s shareholder value should M&A continue to be difficult to achieve.

Positive impact from stronger Rupiah. As Kalbe imports 80% of its raw materials, Rupiah appreciation against the USD has a positive impact. Kalbe’s gross margin improved from 50.2% in 1Q10 to 51.8% in 1Q11 mainly due to the c.6% Rupiah appreciation. Our sensitivity analysis shows that a 1% appreciation of Rupiah against the greenback would raise net profit by 2% and vice versa. We have nudged up our earnings estimates for FY11/12F by 7% and 8% as we raise our margin assumptions to account for stronger Rupiah.

Maintain HOLD, TP raised to Rp3,800. TP raised to Rp3,800 (14% WACC, 3% terminal growth) after upgrading our earnings estimates. Currently, KLBF’s is trading at demanding valuations of 22x FY11F PE, 47% higher than the historical 5 years’ average of 15x PE. As the upside (including FY11F dividend payout) is only 8% and we believe all the positives including the higher dividend payout, has been priced in, we are maintaining our Hold call. Positive news flow on M&A and further Rupiah strengthening against the greenback would be a potential catalyst for the counter.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 21.48

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