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Senin, 28 Februari 2011

The coal sector here is now a long way from peak valuations - CLSA

It is clear that Food and Oil driven inflation is a rising risk especially for emerging markets. Just a few short months ago, crude was "behaving" - trading in Opec’s US$70-80/bbl target range for 12 months between late 2009 and 4Q10. However, political instability in certain Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, with Libya seemingly entering a state of civil war last week, has shocked the market.

For the oil & gas sector, the key questions are: Can "core" Opec members (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE) meet any shortfall arising from the production disruptions in MENA? And, are they immune to the grassroots challenges we are seeing in Egypt and Libya?

On the surface, IEA's assessment of OPEC spare capacity is about 6% of current global production with 75%-80% of the available spare capacity from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE. Libya produces 1.6m bpd and Algeria produces 1.3m bpd potentially consuming almost all of that excess.

An industry veteran with more than 30 years’ experience, Dr Fereidun Fesharaki from oil & gas consultancy FACTS Global Energy will answer these questions and help us understand the dynamics at play. CLSAU will be running a teleconference with Dr Fesharaki on THURSDAY 3 March at 5pm Hong Kong - ask me if you want dial in details

As for Indonesia, consolidation continues. Regardless of fundamentals, coal and contract miners (United Tractors, Delta Dunia) also got indiscriminately sold down. At the same time fundamentals are getting better with Newcastle thermal coal price back above $130 (+4% WoW to $131.7/) after a five week consolidation.

The coal sector here is now a long way from peak valuations trading at only 10x 2011 earnings and 8x 2012 profits. This compares with a five-year average of 13.3x forward earnings.

Indo’s nine largest thermal coal producers account for 85% of aggregate coal produced in Indonesia. Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ), Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ), and Adaro (ADRO IJ), have the best leverage into the cycle.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 15.00

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