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Jumat, 04 Maret 2011

FOCUS (03-Mar-2011) KIJA:Off the hurdle - Mandiri Sekuritas

KIJA has finally signed the long-awaited 20-year Electricity Sales and Purchase Agreement with PLN for 100% off-take of electricity generated from its 130-MW combined cycle power plant. The deal will ultimately guarantee the company of some US$85mn annual revenue (EBITDA margin: 34%), which is expected to contribute up to 55% of total revenue onwards. Yet, we see its revenue contribution to start streaming only by 2012, later that we have earlier assumed. Less operational efficiency is seen if the plant runs only with 2 out of 3 planned turbines. This resulted in reduction in the EPS11F by 49% to only Rp9. However, we still like the company, especially given the prospects of its industrial estates post the power plant completion. KIJA can now es tablish itself as a proxy of fully integrated-industrial estate developer, coupled with the outlook of the country’s economy. We upgraded our TP to Rp150/share, benchmarking it to the current trading discount to NAV of its peers of 58%. BUY. KIJA is trading at attractively 62% discount to RNAV11F.

Passed the biggest hurdle. We understand the prolonged time waiting of the power plant contribution that now we expect to start streaming by 2012. The company said minimal profit is seen if they run the power plant only with the currently installed two turbines. This is evidenced in the company 9M10 book, where KIJA experienced loss supplying PLN on emergency contract basis, while taking similar pricing structure of ±9cents/ kwh. Given such condition, it led us to eliminate our earlier power plant assumption in 2011, hence reducing our EPS11F to Rp9 from initially Rp17. Nonetheless, we are still positive on the company’s growth outlook in 2012, as we are confident that KIJA has passed its biggest hurdle in completing the project.

Loan disbursement to complete the project. We don’t see any more major issue that will impede the completion of the project. The next stage would be the disbursement of the remaining US$40mn syndicated loan that US$20mn is used to complete the project, while the remaining to refinance the maturing CIMB-Niaga’s bridging loans. The company expects this to be received by the end of Mar11.

Buy with new TP Rp150/share. Despite lowered EPS11F, we still like the company, due to its prospects post the power plant completion. We expect land sales to continue showing growth, especially given the guaranteed power supply from the power plant, coupled with the newly dry port service and other maintenance facilities in the area. KIJA is now a proxy of a fully-integrated industrial developer in the country. Buy, with upgraded TP Rp150/share.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 05.06

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