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Senin, 28 Februari 2011

Banking sector, upward trajectory - CLSA

Bret “the pool” Ginesky highlighted that Indonesia’s financial system is starting to pick up strength earlier than we anticipated. Seasonal weakness in 1Q appears to have subsided and loan growth has returned to YE10 levels, some 2 weeks earlier than in 2010. YoY loan growth remains impressive at 22%.

Strong loan growth and low NPLs are the two main reasons for Bret’s bullish stance on Indo banking sector (despite rising rates). Thus it is encouraging to see loan disbursement picking up quickly in the year.

Key points from the report:
Loan disbursed at Rp1,744tn has exceeded 2010 year end, growing at an impressive 22% YoY
While deposit growth is negative (-36bps) YTD, it is better than the decline of -160bps in the first 2 months of 2010
CASA ratio remains 200bps above Feb 2010 levels at 54%
Strong loan disbursement + weaker deposit growth = rising LDR to 76.7%, just 30bps below its previous peak in Dec 2009
The higher credit growth is within expectations, and bodes well for low LDR, well capitalized banks.
Top pick is BNI (BBNI I).

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