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Senin, 28 Februari 2011

Asia ex-Japan Strategy Back Towards Mean. Time To Take Stock - Citigroup

 Concerns on profit margins overdone — Yes, Asia’s terms of trade are worsening but they have had zero impact on ROE or the P/BV that investors have been willing to pay. Asia-ex is driven more by volume-asset turn than by margins. Margins have been declining for over 15 years yet markets have twice reached 3x book in that time.

 Excess liquidity in Asia-ex is rising — Our liquidity indicator continues to improve, suggesting equities are not starved of liquidity. The US yield curve and negative real rates also remain supportive.

 Valuations are 10% above mean on Book, below mean on P/E — Mid-cycle based P/E is also at average levels, while the earnings yield gap shows markets to be cheap. South Asia remains more expensive than the cyclical North. We still prefer North Asia.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 13.26

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