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Kamis, 16 Juni 2011

Mitra Adi (MAPI IJ) 1,000 and counting - BUY, Tp Upgrade to Rp4,400 - CLSA

Arguably this is the best play to capture the rising middle class theme in Indonesia. Their portfolio (90 plus brands) from Starbucks, Burger King, Dominos Pizza to Sogo, Zara, Marks & Spencer, Reebook is unmatched by any retailer in Indonesia, probably in the region. In fact, they are anchor tenant of almost every major shopping mall here commanding a huge rental terms edge. Mapi expects to have over 1,000 stores by year end.

As Indonesian breach US$3,000 GDP/capita consumption starts to rise in a non-linear way. Not to mention the impact to consumption power as the rupiah continue to appreciate (most of MAPI COGS is in USD). After more than a decade of building up their franchises, Mapi is finally reaping the rewards. Bread and butter specialty stores sales growing 20%+, Department stores now see a big turnaround. Biggest upside F & B is gaining operating leverage. Interesting to note Jubilant Foodworks in India which operates the Dominos Pizza franchise only has a bigger market cap than Mapi.

At 13x 2012CL, this stock is one of the cheapest consumer + F & B play in region with the steepest growth profile (cheapest by far in PEG terms at 0.3)

Key takeaway:

· MAPI reported on track May sales, up 20% YoY with YTD SSG of 11%.

· F&B is the fastest growing segment in the company with a YTD growth of 38%, driven by rapid floor expansion. MAPI is opening the 100th Starbucks at the end of this month.

· Department store also seems to make a nice come back since the divestment of Harvey Nichols with a sales growth and SSG of 15%. EBIT margin also improved from 3% in 1Q10 to 6% in 1Q11. Peak EBIT margin is seen in 4Q10 post Harvey Nichols close-down at 7.4%.

· Turnaround in the department store segment and deleveraging balance sheet are the two key earnings driver. We forecast 32% earnings Cagr in the next two years, suggesting that on a PEG basis, MAPI is trading attractively at 0.3x.

· We are maintaining our BUY call on the stock and upgrade our target price to Rp4,400 based on 17.5x 12CL PE, matching regional peer average.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.53

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