Small Cap Screen favours MDRN IJ - JP Morgan

CEO Henri Honoris told Bisnis Indonesia reporter that he has budgeted Rp150bn to open 36 new 7-Eleven outlets, vs its current outlets of 31, all of which are in Jakarta. For FY11, 7-Eleven may contribute Rp400bn sales or 40% of consolidated profit sales of Rp1trn. In FY10, 7-Eleven’s actual sales contribution was Rp73bn, or 10% of consolidated sales of Rp733bn. (Bisnis Indo).

My take – Maria Lapiz, JPM consumer analyst in Thailand, covers CPALL TB that runs the 7-Eleven franchise in Thailand. They started early with the franchise; the first store was opened in 1989. As of 1Q11, they had 5,962 branches, including the 875 located in the PTT petro stations (market leader). If MDRN can be anywhere near as successful as CPALL, then obviously there is significant upside potential to MDRN with start-up market cap of just US$163mn (and 31 outlets currently). 7-Eleven franchise is the major sales and profit driver for CPALL, with US$6.88bn market cap. CPALL trades on 24.5x P/E for FY11 with 18-19% EPS growth estimate for FY11-13. Key risk for MDRN is being a late comer, with Alfamart (AMRT) and Salim's Indomaret already run thousands of outlets all-over Indonesia.