Metals & Mining - Indonesia's forestry moratorium; limited impact on miners - Deutsche Bank

We see limited risk on mining sector
The president last week signed a moratorium on new forestry permit approvals, valid for the next 2 years starting May'11 (Presidential Instruction 10/2011), as part of a $1 billion deal with Norway. We believe the moratorium is unlikely to affect current operations & expansion plans of miners, given a) the notable exemptions below, and b) the lack of clarity on the restricted areas and implementation details.

Exemptions imply no impact to existing mine operations & near-term ramp-up plans
The regulation will NOT apply to those principal approvals & borrow‐use permits already granted, nor will it apply to extensions of existing permits; hence will not affect next 2 year production plans of all listed mining companies under our coverage.

Unclear definition of affected areas implies limited risk on future mine expansion plans The area that would be restricted is not clearly defined, implying potential
flexibility on the moratorium application; moreover the area would also subject to a revision by the forestry ministry every 6 months.

Underground mining in protected forest allowed; positive for Bumi's underground project A separate presidential regulation issued concurrent with the moratorium,
will allow companies to carry out underground mining activities in protected forestry area. Principal approval will be granted for a 2‐year period, after which a Borrow‐Use permit will be granted for a 20 year period; land or monetary compensation will be required for rehabilitation. This paves the way for Bumi's for Herald/Dairi underground zinc/lead project ‐ production expected at least 2 years after the permit is granted.