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Senin, 30 Mei 2011

PTPP:Venture into investment segments - Mandiri

We initiating coverage on PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP), a state owned company with expertise in high-rise buildings and one of the largest construction company in terms of FY10 sales (around Rp4.4tn). PTPP booked 1Q11 net profit of Rp24bn (+57.4%yoy, -84.4%qoq) or equivalent to 9.5% and 8.4% of our and consensus estimates. Going forward, PTPP is planning to venture into investment segment as a feeder for construction segment and generator for recurring income.

To venture into investment segments. PTPP plans to increase its revenue by penetrating into investment segment. Under the new strategy, PTPP intends to obtain construction project by becoming minority shareholders in projects and will also receive recurring income after the projects start operating commercially. Investment project eyed by PTPP such as: commercial centers, apartments, office buildings, realty, hotel, power plants, toll roads, etc.

PTPP is the 3nd largest construction company in terms of revenue. PTPP booked revenue of Rp4.4tn in 2010 resulting in positive CAGR08-10 growth of 6%, while other construction companies booked CAGR contraction due to financial crisis in 2008.

Strong 1Q11 results. PTPP booked 1Q11 net profit of Rp24bn (+57.4%yoy, -84.4%qoq) or equivalent to 9.5% and 8.4% of our and consensus FY estimates. We consider this figure being in line with estimates considering seasonality factors as most of the payment from government projects is made in the 4Q. Historically, net profit in 1Q contributed around 7.5% of FY net profit, while net profit in 4Q contributed more than 75% of FY net profit.

Buy recommendation. Our target price for the company is Rp780/share, using DCF method to predict the target price. We used WACC of 10.7% and terminal growth of 3.0%. The WACC consists of cost of equity of 12.3% and after tax cost of debt of 8.9%. The current share price is therefore suggesting a 16.4% discount to our estimates. Hence we give a Buy recommendation on PTPP.

What are the risk? Material risks in our forecast include lower government budget, significant jump in raw material prices, overdue payments, higher-than-expected provision for receivables, and changes in government policies.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 05.08

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