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Senin, 28 Februari 2011

PGas down another 2%, quick update - CLSA

PGAS’ share price has been weak, down by 22% since late last year. Concerns have ranged from disappointing volumes; rumors of rights issue and losses on swap (both untrue). While this is more on the negative side, stock is now trading at 11x 2011 earnings, 5.4% yield and 47% ROE.

Please see comments by Swati:

Quick update on PGas
The current weakness in the stock price is because of the partial diversion of Conoco Phillips volumes from PGas to Chevron. PGas’s current contracted amount from Conoco Phillips is 375mmscfd, but Conoco Phillips is delivering only 300mmscfd currently to PGas. The company is trying to get back these volumes. This means we have to cut volumes by 50mmscfd assuming that PGas gets no new volumes during the year we will have to cut earnings by 8% for 2011CL. PGas expects that it will be able to recover these volumes in 2H11 when Chevron can get gas from Jambi Marang.

West Java LNG receiving terminal construction has started
PGas has started construction of West Java LNG receiving terminal and expects the construction to complete in 2H12. The current gas supply agreement (HOA only) with Bontang is of 130mmscfd, (1/3 of the capacity). The GSA should be signed soon. The north Sumatera terminal will start construction when HOA is signed. The structure will be cost plus. So basically the pricing to the customers will be determined by cost of gas + operating expense + part of the investment cost + distribution margin. The LNG will become like a transmission business where costs are passed on and PGas only makes a toll fee.

More gas supply?
Press report states that Indonesia to import 4.5mn tonnes of LNG starting in 2013. Indonesia will begin importing up to 4.5mn tonnes of LNG every year beginning in 2013 in order to meet the surging domestic demand. Senior official at upstream oil ad gas regulator stated that almost all current LNG production was allocated for export. LNG importing would begin after four LNG receiving terminals start commercial operations in 2013.

Positive News
This opens up potential for Pgas to import gas and is a positive news as the government is giving indication that imports of gas is also an option. (This is quite political as Indonesia being a large producer and export of gas has to import for its domestic needs) So a sign by govt that we are open to imports if necessary is a positive sign for Pgas future supply.

We think that while growth will be slow next two years, growth profile longer term will be intact as LNG has started construction and they expect can finish in 2012 (end). Demand for gas continues to be very strong and industries are still pressing for more gas supply. The stock is ex growth for next 2011 and 2012 and we are reviewing our recommendation.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 16.07

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