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Senin, 28 Februari 2011

HOW MUCH ETF MONEY CAN STILL COME OUT OF ASIA? - CITIGROUP

* SUMMARY *
1. Most comprehensive survey of ETF flows into Asian region
2. If you think recent ETF outflows have been brutal, a lot more can come
3. $7bn of ETF funds leave YTD out of estimated $62bn total invested in region
4. Still more selling to come, $15bn entered from May 2010, $24bn since Mar 09
5. China long ETF positions unwound, India, Thailand, Vietnam vulnerable
6. Korea vulnerable to $500m more selling from May 10 holders, $4bn from Mar 09
7. Half of long regional ETF positions built since May 10 appear unwound
8. Still another $24bn that can be liquidated if positions from Mar 09 unwound

* COMMENT *
The chart attached shows the results of what we believe may be the most comprehensive analysis of fund inflows into Asian ETFs. Using the funds managed by over 63 local ETFs across the region and using the Asian portion of the funds managed by 12 major international ETFs, we have attempted to ascertain the scale of inflows and outflows into the region from these funds that have been a key driver of Asian equity market performance.

The chart attached shows that approximately $7bn has left the Asian region (out of a total of $62bn) since the start of the year, compared to $15bn that entered the market between the end of May 2010 and the end of 2010. Compared to the start of the rally in Mar 2009, ETF inflows into Asia still represent some $24bn. Asian markets continue to remain vulnerable to further ETF related selloffs.

In terms of specific markets, it would appear that most long ETF positions established in HK/China since May 2010 seem to have been unwound, but we continue to see long ETF positions in India where there is potentially a further $1bn of ETF related selling to come. Positions from the end of May 2010 appear to have been unwound in Taiwan and Malaysia, although Korea appears to be vulnerable to another $500m of selling. Thailand and Vietnam also seem at risk. If positions established since the start of the rally start to be liquidated then Asian equity markets are likely to be in far more significant trouble.

The second page shows that from a regional ETF perspective, half of long positions established in Asia since the end of May 2010 have been unwound. It is now unclear as to whether funds will now start liquidating the remainder of the positions worth a further $5.8bn.

If positions from the start of the rally in Mar 09 are unwound, then there is likely to be about a further $18bn of selling to come from regional and global ETFs, compared to the $5.8bn of regional ETFs liquidated so far this year.

It would appear that funds allocated to individual equity market ETFs is a lot stickier but is also smaller in size. The exception again is India where $1.4bn of ETFs have been created in the past year. These positions are thought to be losing currently.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 13.54

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