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Selasa, 26 April 2011

SMRA:Soothing the worried mind - Mandiri

SMRA sailed along the 2010 smoothly. Net profit grew solidly by +39% yoy to Rp233bn, coming within our and consensus estimates. Although a slight margin pressure was noted, following additional personnel numbers in preparation for its newly and upcoming Bekasi and Bandung projects, that would become one of the company’s major revenue generators in the next few years. We are toning down our caution over inflation on SMRA, given the continued solid sales to date. Also, worry on possible fall in its stock price following recent rumor on potential rights issue should also ease as availability of other fund raising options that are considerably more market friendly. We upgraded our recommendation to Buy on SMRA, with new TP Rp1,280/share, offering 14% upside from the current stock price.

Solid result, despite a slight margin pressure due to different product mix and an increase in labor costs. Despite solid FY10 net profit growth of +39% yoy, the company experienced a slight decline in margin, following different product mix and increase of salaries and benefits costs of +41% yoy due additional personnel numbers in the company in relation for the operations of the Bekasi and Bandung projects that would become one of company’s revenue drivers in the next few years.

100-ha Bandung project secured. The company has so far secured 100ha for the new area in Bandung, West Java. It is located in Gedebage, ±12km away from Bandung city centre. The area is considered to be Bandung’s next development for residential, considering the scarecity of land bank within the city area. SMRA acquired the land at Rp270k/sqm, and plan to expand further 200ha up to 2013.

Right Issue is the last option. The company assured it will use internal cash to finance the Bandung project, considering the time frame above. In the meantime, for the currently assessed South Jakarta project, the company admits it’s considering to use external financing source to fund the acquisition. Yet, it claimed rights issue will be the last option. However, we think this makes sense, looking at its rich cash and also healthy net gearing ratio (-24%). Note, that the company still also has pre-emptive rights issue option. Taking Rp500/sqm as the approximate acquisition cost (200ha ~ Rp1tn) and given Rp8tn SMRA’s current market cap Rp7.8tn, this considerably more market friendly equity raising option is always justified. Although, a full rights issue should not be seen as a bad option so long as the company keep the transaction purposes transparent.

Upgrade to Buy. We upgraded our recommendation to Buy on SMRA, with new TP Rp1,280/share. SMRA currently trades at 43% discount to RNAV11F and PE11F 25.0x
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 17.07

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