KZ - SMGR gains more market share

·         Jan domestic cement sales was at 4.65m tonnes, down 9.1% MoM, up 14.5%YoY. The increase in YoY figure is encouraging, cementing our view on rising trend demand. Historically, January and 1Q are usually a weaker period,  representing around 8% and 22% of full year domestic sale, respectively.
·         Export market only contributes 0.4% of total national cement sales.
·         SMGR gained market share at the expense of INTP and SMCB:
§         SMGR continued to gain market share due to more capacity (operational of Tuban IV on July 2012 and Tonasa V plant on late 2012): 43.9%, from 42.1% in 4Q12.
§         INTP market share declined to 30.1% (from 31.4% in 4Q12), while SMCB market share declined to 14.8% (from 15.1% in 4Q12).
·         We expect 12% volume growth for FY13; in line with Cement Association’ expectation.  This implies the players running at 93-94% utilization rate. Still a very tight market. We expect ASP to rise 4-5% this year.
·         INTP is now trading at 14x PE13, SMGR at 18.3x PE13, and SMCB 16.7x PE13. We are reviewing our SMGR assumptions post additional capacity from Thang Long and the newly commissioned Tonasa V.
me @ LOTS Trading Club (LTC)