Bakrie vs Rothschild: Potential Mandatory Tender Offer US$8bn?

· What happen?
Local newspaper quoting from Bakrie Group key spokeperson, Christopher Fong, highlighted that if somehow Rothschild won the EGM on 21 Feb 2012 and replace the existing 12 boards of Directors in Bumi Plc, meaning that the Bakrie Separation Agreement signed last week has been breached and Bakrie Group would take a legal action to the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) which the new board members of Bumi Plc  will face a potential  Mandatory Tender Offer (MTO) if Nat’s proposal passed.

· How possible US$8bn cash offer?
Mr Fong reiterates that based on Indonesia’s capital market regulation, if there’s a change in majority shareholders in Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ), then Bumi Plc will subject to MTO and has to pay US$4bn of 70% of BUMI IJ floating shares and US$4bn debt in BUMI IJ, as creditor has the priority to be paid off if there’s change in majority share/stake holders (based on general financial covenant in banking). BRAU IJ tender offer occurred in 2011 at Rp540/share when Vallar acquired the majority stake.

· Comment:
This is a valid reason in our view, considering Bakrie Group has a strong network access to Indonesia capital market regulators. In addition, political wise Indonesia regulators or Government will unlikely let one of the largest Indonesia coal assets, KPC and Arutmin (CCoW 1st Gen), controlled by foreign Investor which against the New Mining Law 4/2009 as it also subject to foreign ownership divestment clause as well. So from here, BUMI IJ stock may look attractive for trading idea.

me @ LOTS Trading Club (LTC)