Bumi Resources: CIC prefers cash payment (BUMI, Rp3,000, Under review) - Mandiri

Based on Bisnis Indonesia interview with Mr Ari Hudaya, CEO of Bumi Resources (BUMI), it has been clarified that CIC prefers cash payment for its US$1.9bn debt rather than swapped it with convertible bond of US$2.07bn from the sale of 75% stake of BRMS to Bumi Plc.

At the analyst briefing last week, BUMI still plan to negotiate with CIC for potential debt swap with the CB. Beside that, there has been a talk in market that CIC was asking about 20% discount for swapping with the CB since the CB was offered out of the money.

This clarification should answer overshadow of CIC debt swap issue. So BUMI will still prepay the US$600mn of the CIC tranch 1 loan this year with 5% penalty (Please note that, taken into account 19% IRR and penalty, total cash that BUMI has to provide for the 1st tranch prepayment is around US$785mn).
This could bring negativity in near term for BUMI share since selling directly the CB with only 2% coupon sounds very challenging. And this will will bring questions to BUMI’s current shareholders about the new potentially unfriendly shareholder of 20.6% ownership in Bumi Plc

There is a trade off about earnings dilution from the sale of 75% stake in BRMS (that will no longer consolidated in BUMI’s income statement) and deleveraging plan in which BUMI would remove US$238mn of BRMS’s loan carried on BUMI’s balance sheet. Our calculation show that with the remaining of 12% stake in BRMS, BUMI’s FY12F net profit is potentially diluted by around US$60-70mn about (9% – 11% from our previous FY12F forecasts) which have brought negativity and selling pressure to BUMI’s share recently.

Currently we are still in a process reviewing our forecasts and rating.