Steel use to surge by 5.9% to 1,359 mmt in 2011: World Steel - Commodity Online

LONDON(Commodity Online) : Apparent steel use will increase by 5.9% to 1,359 mmt in 2011, following 13.2% growth in 2010— The World Steel Association said Monday in its April 2011 short range outlook (SRO) for 2011 and 2012.

In 2012, it is forecast that world steel demand will grow further by 6.0% to reach a new record of 1,441 mmt.

This forecast suggests that by 2012, steel use in the developed world will still be at 14% below the 2007 level whereas in the emerging and developing economies, it will be 38% above. In 2012, the emerging and developing economies will account for 72% of world steel demand in contrast to 61% in 2007.

The World Steel Economics Committee met in Beijing in March 2011 to discuss the SRO, just before the natural disaster in Japan. The forecast has not been revised yet due to the difficulty of assessing the impact of the earthquake and tsunami.

Commenting, Daniel Novegil, Chairman of the World Steel Economics Committee said, “2010 saw a steady recovery of steel demand which began in the second half of 2009 driven by stimulus packages globally, the resilience of emerging economies and an overall market recovery. In 2011, we expect to see a further 5.9% growth in world steel demand.

Our forecast is based on a stable and steady recovery of the world economy. There are however uncertainties deriving from financial fragilities in Europe, unrest in some oil producing countries in the Middle East and the earthquake in Japan, which could have a negative impact on the recovery and thereby affect steel demand. At our World Steel board meeting last week the industry again expressed its condolences and support to its Japanese members.”

China’s apparent steel use in 2011 is expected to increase by 5.0% to 605 mmt following 5.1% growth in 2010. Given the pace of steel production in the first quarter of 2011, Chinese apparent steel use could be even higher. However, it is expected that the Chinese government’s efforts to cool down the overheating economy, particularly the real estate sector, will impact Chinese steel demand somewhat later this year.In 2012, Chinese steel demand is expected to maintain 5.0% growth, which will bring China’s apparent steel use to 635 mmt.

Indiais expected to show strong growth in steel use in the coming years due to its strong domestic economy, massive infrastructure needs and expansion of industrial production. In 2011, India’s steel use is forecast to grow by 13.3% to reach 68.7 mmt. In 2012, the growth rate is forecast to accelerate further to 14.3%.

The rebound in apparent steel use in the US is forecast to continue with growth of 13.0% to 90.5 mmt in 2011, reflecting the second round of quantitative easing and new fiscal policy initiatives that gave a boost to economic activities and sentiments in industrial and energy markets. Construction markets remain at depressed levels. In 2012, steel use in the US is expected to grow by 6.9% to 96.7 mmt, bringing it back to 90% of the 2007 level. For NAFTA as a whole, apparent steel use will grow by 10.9% and 6.3% in 2011 and 2012 respectively.

In Central and South America, apparent steel use is forecast to grow by 6.6% in 2011 to 48.8 mmt. In 2012, the region’s apparent steel use is forecast to grow by 8.3% to 52.8 mmt, almost 30% higher than the 2007 level.

Apparent steel use in the EU is forecast to grow by 4.9% to 151.8 mmt in 2011 on the back of an export-driven industrial rebound. The largest economy eurozone countries like Germany and France are forecast to enjoy solid recovery in steel use mainly in the automotive and machine building sectors. Other economies (i.e., Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain) are projected to show slow growth in steel use particularly as a result of weak construction activity. In 2012, the region will see an increase of 3.7% to 157.5 mmt in its apparent steel use, bringing it back to 80% of the 2007 peak.

Japan’s steel use was expected to decline by -1.2% to 63 mmt in 2011 as stimulus measures expire. However, the forecast was prepared before the natural disaster and it is too early to fully grasp the implications of these recent tragic events. In 2012, apparent steel use in Japan was forecast to remain around 63 mmt, 78% of the 2007 level. The impact of the earthquake and tsunami points to a significant downward adjustment in steel use for 2011 and upward adjustment for 2012.

The recovery of steel use in the CIS has been surprisingly healthy due mainly to an unexpectedly strong rebound from steel-using sectors in Russia. As domestic demand and business investment continue to grow healthily in the region, apparent steel use is expected to grow by 7.5% to 52.1 mmt in 2011 and then by 8.9% to 56.7 mmt in 2012.

Steel demand in the MENA region is expected to remain stagnant in 2011, mainly due to downward revisions from North African countries. However, boosted by high oil prices, steel use in MENA is forecast to resume growth in 2012 at a rate of 7.9%. Given the political situation in the region, there are considerable uncertainties to the current forecasts.

Also, The World Steel Board of Directors formally approved the appointment of Edwin Basson as Director General of the World Steel Association, effective from August 2011.

Edwin Basson(51) joined the steel industry in 1994 and has held various positions at world leading steel companies. At Iscor Ltd, he started as Chief Economist and later managed coated products and flat steel products, before moving on to Strategic Initiatives.

From 2004 to 2006, he was responsible for Marketing Strategy and Commercial Research & Market Segmentation at Mittal Steel (now ArcelorMittal). He joined worldsteel from ArcelorMittal where he held the position of Vice President, Commercial Co-ordination, Marketing and Trade Policy.